How do you predict if a stock will go up or down? (NSE UBL Stock Prediction)

Predicting the future price of financial assets has always been an important research topic in the field of quantitative finance. This paper attempts to use the latest artificial intelligence technologies to design and implement a framework for financial asset price prediction. We evaluate United Breweries Limited prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE UBL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE UBL stock.

Keywords: NSE UBL, United Breweries Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Is now good time to invest?
2. What is a prediction confidence?
3. Short/Long Term Stocks

NSE UBL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The success of portfolio construction depends primarily on the future performance of stock markets. Recent developments in machine learning have brought significant opportunities to incorporate prediction theory into portfolio selection. However, many studies show that a single prediction model is insufficient to achieve very accurate predictions and affluent returns. In this paper, a novel portfolio construction approach is developed using a hybrid model based on machine learning for stock prediction. We consider United Breweries Limited Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE UBL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE UBL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE UBL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE UBL United Breweries Limited
Time series to forecast n: 14 Nov 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE UBL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for United Breweries Limited

1. However, an entity is not required to separately recognise interest revenue or impairment gains or losses for a financial asset measured at fair value through profit or loss. Consequently, when an entity reclassifies a financial asset out of the fair value through profit or loss measurement category, the effective interest rate is determined on the basis of the fair value of the asset at the reclassification date. In addition, for the purposes of applying Section 5.5 to the financial asset from the reclassification date, the date of the reclassification is treated as the date of initial recognition.
2. A single hedging instrument may be designated as a hedging instrument of more than one type of risk, provided that there is a specific designation of the hedging instrument and of the different risk positions as hedged items. Those hedged items can be in different hedging relationships.
3. The decision of an entity to designate a financial asset or financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss is similar to an accounting policy choice (although, unlike an accounting policy choice, it is not required to be applied consistently to all similar transactions). When an entity has such a choice, paragraph 14(b) of IAS 8 requires the chosen policy to result in the financial statements providing reliable and more relevant information about the effects of transactions, other events and conditions on the entity's financial position, financial performance or cash flows. For example, in the case of designation of a financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss, paragraph 4.2.2 sets out the two circumstances when the requirement for more relevant information will be met. Accordingly, to choose such designation in accordance with paragraph 4.2.2, the entity needs to demonstrate that it falls within one (or both) of these two circumstances.
4. Expected credit losses shall be discounted to the reporting date, not to the expected default or some other date, using the effective interest rate determined at initial recognition or an approximation thereof. If a financial instrument has a variable interest rate, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the current effective interest rate determined in accordance with paragraph B5.4.5.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

United Breweries Limited assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE UBL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE UBL stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE UBL United Breweries Limited Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B2	B2
Operational Risk	44	39
Market Risk	68	72
Technical Analysis	43	89
Fundamental Analysis	87	30
Risk Unsystematic	34	45

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 621 signals.

References

1. Li L, Chu W, Langford J, Moon T, Wang X. 2012. An unbiased offline evaluation of contextual bandit algo- rithms with generalized linear models. In Proceedings of 4th ACM International Conference on Web Search and Data Mining, pp. 297–306. New York: ACM
2. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
3. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
4. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
5. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
6. S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009
7. Breusch, T. S. (1978), "Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models," Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334–355.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for NSE UBL stock?
A: NSE UBL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is NSE UBL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NSE UBL Stock.
Q: Is United Breweries Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for United Breweries Limited is Sell and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE UBL stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE UBL is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE UBL stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE UBL is (n+8 weeks)

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