How do you predict if a stock will go up or down? (JBLU Stock Prediction)

Stock market prediction is a crucial and challenging task due to its nonlinear, evolutionary, complex, and dynamic nature. Research on the stock market has been an important issue for researchers in recent years. Companies invest in trading the stock market. Predicting the stock market trend accurately will minimize the risk and bring a maximum amount of profit for all the stakeholders. During the last several years, a lot of studies have been done to predict stock market trends using Traditional, Machine learning and deep learning techniques. We evaluate JetBlue prediction models with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the JBLU stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold JBLU stock.

Keywords: JBLU, JetBlue, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. Investment Risk
2. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
3. How can neural networks improve predictions?

JBLU Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

In the finance world stock trading is one of the most important activities. Stock market prediction is an act of trying to determine the future value of a stock other financial instrument traded on a financial exchange. This paper explains the prediction of a stock using Machine Learning. The technical and fundamental or the time series analysis is used by the most of the stockbrokers while making the stock predictions. We consider JetBlue Stock Decision Process with ElasticNet Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of JBLU stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(ElasticNet Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of JBLU stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

JBLU Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: JBLU JetBlue
Time series to forecast n: 04 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold JBLU stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for JetBlue

1. When designating a risk component as a hedged item, the hedge accounting requirements apply to that risk component in the same way as they apply to other hedged items that are not risk components. For example, the qualifying criteria apply, including that the hedging relationship must meet the hedge effectiveness requirements, and any hedge ineffectiveness must be measured and recognised.
2. Time value of money is the element of interest that provides consideration for only the passage of time. That is, the time value of money element does not provide consideration for other risks or costs associated with holding the financial asset. In order to assess whether the element provides consideration for only the passage of time, an entity applies judgement and considers relevant factors such as the currency in which the financial asset is denominated and the period for which the interest rate is set.
3. If an entity has applied paragraph 7.2.6 then at the date of initial application the entity shall recognise any difference between the fair value of the entire hybrid contract at the date of initial application and the sum of the fair values of the components of the hybrid contract at the date of initial application in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
4. The definition of a derivative in this Standard includes contracts that are settled gross by delivery of the underlying item (eg a forward contract to purchase a fixed rate debt instrument). An entity may have a contract to buy or sell a non-financial item that can be settled net in cash or another financial instrument or by exchanging financial instruments (eg a contract to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price at a future date). Such a contract is within the scope of this Standard unless it was entered into and continues to be held for the purpose of delivery of a non-financial item in accordance with the entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements. However, this Standard applies to such contracts for an entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements if the entity makes a designation in accordance with paragraph 2.5 (see paragraphs 2.4–2.7).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

JetBlue assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) with ElasticNet Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the JBLU stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold JBLU stock.

Financial State Forecast for JBLU JetBlue Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Caa2	B2
Operational Risk	33	38
Market Risk	35	67
Technical Analysis	63	47
Fundamental Analysis	30	33
Risk Unsystematic	62	73

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 734 signals.

References

1. Burkov A. 2019. The Hundred-Page Machine Learning Book. Quebec City, Can.: Andriy Burkov
2. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
3. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Friedman J. 2009. The Elements of Statistical Learning. Berlin: Springer
4. Tibshirani R. 1996. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58:267–88
5. Zubizarreta JR. 2015. Stable weights that balance covariates for estimation with incomplete outcome data. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 110:910–22
6. Jacobs B, Donkers B, Fok D. 2014. Product Recommendations Based on Latent Purchase Motivations. Rotterdam, Neth.: ERIM
7. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017a. The econometrics of randomized experiments. In Handbook of Economic Field Experiments, Vol. 1, ed. E Duflo, A Banerjee, pp. 73–140. Amsterdam: Elsevier

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for JBLU stock?
A: JBLU stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is JBLU stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold JBLU Stock.
Q: Is JetBlue stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for JetBlue is Hold and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of JBLU stock?
A: The consensus rating for JBLU is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for JBLU stock?
A: The prediction period for JBLU is (n+3 month)

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