How Is Machine Learning Used in Trading? (OLA:TSX Stock Forecast)

Orla Mining Ltd. Research Report

Summary

Stock market is considered chaotic, complex, volatile and dynamic. Undoubtedly, its prediction is one of the most challenging tasks in time series forecasting. Moreover existing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approaches fail to provide encouraging results. Meanwhile advances in machine learning have presented favourable results for speech recognition, image classification and language processing. We evaluate Orla Mining Ltd. prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the OLA:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold OLA:TSX stock.

Key Points

1. Which neural network is best for prediction?
2. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
3. Nash Equilibria

OLA:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Orla Mining Ltd. Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of OLA:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of OLA:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

OLA:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: OLA:TSX Orla Mining Ltd.
Time series to forecast n: 22 Nov 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold OLA:TSX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Orla Mining Ltd.

1. At the date of initial application, an entity shall use reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to determine the credit risk at the date that a financial instrument was initially recognised (or for loan commitments and financial guarantee contracts at the date that the entity became a party to the irrevocable commitment in accordance with paragraph 5.5.6) and compare that to the credit risk at the date of initial application of this Standard.
2. At the date of initial application, an entity shall determine whether the treatment in paragraph 5.7.7 would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at the date of initial application. This Standard shall be applied retrospectively on the basis of that determination.
3. In some circumstances, the renegotiation or modification of the contractual cash flows of a financial asset can lead to the derecognition of the existing financial asset in accordance with this Standard. When the modification of a financial asset results in the derecognition of the existing financial asset and the subsequent recognition of the modified financial asset, the modified asset is considered a 'new' financial asset for the purposes of this Standard.
4. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Orla Mining Ltd. assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Multiple Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the OLA:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold OLA:TSX stock.

Financial State Forecast for OLA:TSX Orla Mining Ltd. Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Caa2	Ba3
Operational Risk	42	40
Market Risk	31	80
Technical Analysis	45	71
Fundamental Analysis	46	63
Risk Unsystematic	55	74

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 727 signals.

References

1. Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
2. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
3. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
4. J. Hu and M. P. Wellman. Nash q-learning for general-sum stochastic games. Journal of Machine Learning Research, 4:1039–1069, 2003.
5. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
6. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1995), "Forecasting in cointegrated systems," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 10, 127–146.
7. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for OLA:TSX stock?
A: OLA:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is OLA:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold OLA:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Orla Mining Ltd. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Orla Mining Ltd. is Hold and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of OLA:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for OLA:TSX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for OLA:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for OLA:TSX is (n+8 weeks)

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