IMG:TSX IAMGold Corporation (Forecast)

IAMGold Corporation Research Report

Summary

In this paper, we propose a hybrid machine learning system based on Genetic Algor ithm (GA) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) for stock market prediction. A variety of indicators from the technical analysis field of study are used as input features. We also make use of the correlation between stock prices of different companies to forecast the price of a stock, making use of technical indicators of highly correlated stocks, not only the stock to be predicted. The genetic algorithm is used to select the set of most informative input features from among all the technical indicators. We evaluate IAMGold Corporation prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the IMG:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold IMG:TSX stock.

Key Points

1. What is a prediction confidence?
2. How do you pick a stock?
3. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?

IMG:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider IAMGold Corporation Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of IMG:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Independent T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of IMG:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

IMG:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: IMG:TSX IAMGold Corporation
Time series to forecast n: 29 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold IMG:TSX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for IAMGold Corporation

1. For purchased or originated credit-impaired financial assets, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the credit-adjusted effective interest rate determined at initial recognition.
2. If a put option obligation written by an entity or call option right held by an entity prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the transferred asset at amortised cost, the associated liability is measured at its cost (ie the consideration received) adjusted for the amortisation of any difference between that cost and the gross carrying amount of the transferred asset at the expiration date of the option. For example, assume that the gross carrying amount of the asset on the date of the transfer is CU98 and that the consideration received is CU95. The gross carrying amount of the asset on the option exercise date will be CU100. The initial carrying amount of the associated liability is CU95 and the difference between CU95 and CU100 is recognised in profit or loss using the effective interest method. If the option is exercised, any difference between the carrying amount of the associated liability and the exercise price is recognised in profit or loss.
3. An alternative benchmark rate designated as a non-contractually specified risk component that is not separately identifiable (see paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8) at the date it is designated shall be deemed to have met that requirement at that date, if, and only if, the entity reasonably expects the alternative benchmark rate will be separately identifiable within 24 months. The 24-month period applies to each alternative benchmark rate separately and starts from the date the entity designates the alternative benchmark rate as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time (ie the 24- month period applies on a rate-by-rate basis).
4. In some cases, the qualitative and non-statistical quantitative information available may be sufficient to determine that a financial instrument has met the criterion for the recognition of a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses. That is, the information does not need to flow through a statistical model or credit ratings process in order to determine whether there has been a significant increase in the credit risk of the financial instrument. In other cases, an entity may need to consider other information, including information from its statistical models or credit ratings processes.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

IAMGold Corporation assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the IMG:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold IMG:TSX stock.

Financial State Forecast for IMG:TSX IAMGold Corporation Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	B1
Operational Risk	40	32
Market Risk	71	51
Technical Analysis	40	41
Fundamental Analysis	90	63
Risk Unsystematic	81	90

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 863 signals.

References

1. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
2. Firth JR. 1957. A synopsis of linguistic theory 1930–1955. In Studies in Linguistic Analysis (Special Volume of the Philological Society), ed. JR Firth, pp. 1–32. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
3. M. Puterman. Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming. Wiley, New York, 1994.
4. Tibshirani R. 1996. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58:267–88
5. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
6. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
7. M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for IMG:TSX stock?
A: IMG:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is IMG:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold IMG:TSX Stock.
Q: Is IAMGold Corporation stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for IAMGold Corporation is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of IMG:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for IMG:TSX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for IMG:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for IMG:TSX is (n+6 month)

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