Is LON:TRN a Buy?

Recently, a lot of interesting work has been done in the area of applying Machine Learning Algorithms for analyzing price patterns and predicting stock prices and index changes. Most stock traders nowadays depend on Intelligent Trading Systems which help them in predicting prices based on various situations and conditions, thereby helping them in making instantaneous investment decisions. We evaluate TRAINLINE PLC prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:TRN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:TRN stock.


Keywords: LON:TRN, TRAINLINE PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Stock Forecast Based On a Predictive Algorithm
  2. Prediction Modeling
  3. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

LON:TRN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

The presented paper modeled and predicted stock returns using LSTM. The historical data of stock market were transformed into 30-days-long sequences with 10 learning features and 7-day earning rate labeling. The model was fitted by training on 1200000 sequences and tested using the other 350000 sequences. We consider TRAINLINE PLC Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:TRN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:TRN stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:TRN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:TRN TRAINLINE PLC
Time series to forecast n: 11 Nov 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:TRN stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for TRAINLINE PLC

  1. An entity is not required to incorporate forecasts of future conditions over the entire expected life of a financial instrument. The degree of judgement that is required to estimate expected credit losses depends on the availability of detailed information. As the forecast horizon increases, the availability of detailed information decreases and the degree of judgement required to estimate expected credit losses increases. The estimate of expected credit losses does not require a detailed estimate for periods that are far in the future—for such periods, an entity may extrapolate projections from available, detailed information.
  2. In applying the effective interest method, an entity identifies fees that are an integral part of the effective interest rate of a financial instrument. The description of fees for financial services may not be indicative of the nature and substance of the services provided. Fees that are an integral part of the effective interest rate of a financial instrument are treated as an adjustment to the effective interest rate, unless the financial instrument is measured at fair value, with the change in fair value being recognised in profit or loss. In those cases, the fees are recognised as revenue or expense when the instrument is initially recognised.
  3. As with all fair value measurements, an entity's measurement method for determining the portion of the change in the liability's fair value that is attributable to changes in its credit risk must make maximum use of relevant observable inputs and minimum use of unobservable inputs.
  4. The rebuttable presumption in paragraph 5.5.11 is not an absolute indicator that lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised, but is presumed to be the latest point at which lifetime expected credit losses should be recognised even when using forward-looking information (including macroeconomic factors on a portfolio level).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

TRAINLINE PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:TRN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:TRN stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:TRN TRAINLINE PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Operational Risk 8068
Market Risk4478
Technical Analysis6275
Fundamental Analysis7859
Risk Unsystematic6544

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 676 signals.

References

  1. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  2. Athey S, Imbens GW. 2017b. The state of applied econometrics: causality and policy evaluation. J. Econ. Perspect. 31:3–32
  3. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
  4. Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.
  5. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  6. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
  7. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2018a. Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters. Econom. J. 21:C1–68
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:TRN stock?
A: LON:TRN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is LON:TRN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:TRN Stock.
Q: Is TRAINLINE PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for TRAINLINE PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:TRN stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:TRN is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:TRN stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:TRN is (n+16 weeks)

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