Is NSE VBL a Buy?

Predictions on stock market prices are a great challenge due to the fact that it is an immensely complex, chaotic and dynamic environment. There are many studies from various areas aiming to take on that challenge and Machine Learning approaches have been the focus of many of them. There are many examples of Machine Learning algorithms been able to reach satisfactory results when doing that type of prediction. This article studies the usage of LSTM networks on that scenario, to predict future trends of stock prices based on the price history, alongside with technical analysis indicators. We evaluate Varun Beverages Limited prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE VBL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE VBL stock.


Keywords: NSE VBL, Varun Beverages Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  2. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  3. What is neural prediction?

NSE VBL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Different machine learning algorithms are discussed in this literature review. These algorithms can be used for predicting the stock market. The prediction of the stock market is one of the challenging tasks that must have to be handled. In this paper, it is discussed how the machine learning algorithms can be used for predicting the stock value. We consider Varun Beverages Limited Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE VBL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE VBL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE VBL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE VBL Varun Beverages Limited
Time series to forecast n: 13 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE VBL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Varun Beverages Limited

  1. If an entity prepares interim financial reports in accordance with IAS 34 Interim Financial Reporting the entity need not apply the requirements in this Standard to interim periods prior to the date of initial application if it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8).
  2. Changes in market conditions that give rise to market risk include changes in a benchmark interest rate, the price of another entity's financial instrument, a commodity price, a foreign exchange rate or an index of prices or rates.
  3. To the extent that a transfer of a financial asset does not qualify for derecognition, the transferee does not recognise the transferred asset as its asset. The transferee derecognises the cash or other consideration paid and recognises a receivable from the transferor. If the transferor has both a right and an obligation to reacquire control of the entire transferred asset for a fixed amount (such as under a repurchase agreement), the transferee may measure its receivable at amortised cost if it meets the criteria in paragraph 4.1.2.
  4. Expected credit losses shall be discounted to the reporting date, not to the expected default or some other date, using the effective interest rate determined at initial recognition or an approximation thereof. If a financial instrument has a variable interest rate, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the current effective interest rate determined in accordance with paragraph B5.4.5.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Varun Beverages Limited assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE VBL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE VBL stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE VBL Varun Beverages Limited Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3Ba3
Operational Risk 3668
Market Risk3959
Technical Analysis7172
Fundamental Analysis4574
Risk Unsystematic4155

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 584 signals.

References

  1. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
  2. J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Opera- tions Research, 14(1):147–161, 1989
  3. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
  4. Breiman L. 2001b. Statistical modeling: the two cultures (with comments and a rejoinder by the author). Stat. Sci. 16:199–231
  5. Christou, C., P. A. V. B. Swamy G. S. Tavlas (1996), "Modelling optimal strategies for the allocation of wealth in multicurrency investments," International Journal of Forecasting, 12, 483–493.
  6. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
  7. Zou H, Hastie T. 2005. Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 67:301–20
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NSE VBL stock?
A: NSE VBL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is NSE VBL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE VBL Stock.
Q: Is Varun Beverages Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Varun Beverages Limited is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE VBL stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE VBL is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE VBL stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE VBL is (n+6 month)

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