Is PUB.PA stock expected to rise? (Forecast)

As part of this research, different techniques have been studied for data extraction and analysis. After having reviewed the work related to the initial idea of the research, it is shown the development carried out, together with the data extraction and the machine learning algorithms for prediction used. The calculation of technical analysis metrics is also included. The development of a visualization platform has been proposed for high-level interaction between the user and the recommendation system. We evaluate Publicis prediction models with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Beta^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PUB.PA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PUB.PA stock.

Keywords: PUB.PA, Publicis, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

1. What is prediction model?
2. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
3. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

PUB.PA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Predicting stock market prices is crucial subject at the present economy. Hence, the tendency of researchers towards new opportunities to predict the stock market has been increased. Researchers have found that, historical stock data and Search Engine Queries, social mood from user generated content in sources like Twitter, Web News has a predictive relationship to the future stock prices. Lack of information such as social mood was there in past studies and in this research, we discuss an effective method to analyze multiple information sources to fill the information gap and predict an accurate future value. We consider Publicis Stock Decision Process with Beta where A is the set of discrete actions of PUB.PA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Beta)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\overrightarrow{S}=\left(s_1,s_2,s_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PUB.PA stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PUB.PA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PUB.PA Publicis
Time series to forecast n: 01 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PUB.PA stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Publicis

1. An entity's documentation of the hedging relationship includes how it will assess the hedge effectiveness requirements, including the method or methods used. The documentation of the hedging relationship shall be updated for any changes to the methods (see paragraph B6.4.17).
2. To make that determination, an entity must assess whether it expects that the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk will be offset in profit or loss by a change in the fair value of another financial instrument measured at fair value through profit or loss. Such an expectation must be based on an economic relationship between the characteristics of the liability and the characteristics of the other financial instrument.
3. An entity may manage and evaluate the performance of a group of financial liabilities or financial assets and financial liabilities in such a way that measuring that group at fair value through profit or loss results in more relevant information. The focus in this instance is on the way the entity manages and evaluates performance, instead of on the nature of its financial instruments.
4. Paragraph 4.1.1(b) requires an entity to classify a financial asset on the basis of its contractual cash flow characteristics if the financial asset is held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets to collect contractual cash flows or within a business model whose objective is achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets, unless paragraph 4.1.5 applies. To do so, the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b) requires an entity to determine whether the asset's contractual cash flows are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Publicis assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) with Beta^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PUB.PA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PUB.PA stock.

Financial State Forecast for PUB.PA Publicis Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba2	Ba3
Operational Risk	53	81
Market Risk	88	34
Technical Analysis	80	64
Fundamental Analysis	59	72
Risk Unsystematic	62	71

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 87 out of 100 with 533 signals.

References

1. Jacobs B, Donkers B, Fok D. 2014. Product Recommendations Based on Latent Purchase Motivations. Rotterdam, Neth.: ERIM
2. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
3. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
4. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
5. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
6. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
7. Tibshirani R. 1996. Regression shrinkage and selection via the lasso. J. R. Stat. Soc. B 58:267–88

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for PUB.PA stock?
A: PUB.PA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Beta
Q: Is PUB.PA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell PUB.PA Stock.
Q: Is Publicis stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Publicis is Sell and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PUB.PA stock?
A: The consensus rating for PUB.PA is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for PUB.PA stock?
A: The prediction period for PUB.PA is (n+3 month)

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