LON:BA69 CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Stock Forecast

CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Research Report

Summary

The stock market prediction has attracted much attention from academia as well as business. Due to the non-linear, volatile and complex nature of the market, it is quite difficult to predict. As the stock markets grow bigger, more investors pay attention to develop a systematic approach to predict the stock market. We evaluate CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT TRUST PLC prediction models with Active Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:BA69 stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:BA69 stock.

Key Points

1. How do you know when a stock will go up or down?
2. What are main components of Markov decision process?
3. Can statistics predict the future?

LON:BA69 Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Stock Decision Process with Active Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:BA69 stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Independent T-Test)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Active Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:BA69 stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:BA69 Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:BA69 CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT TRUST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 26 Nov 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:BA69 stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT TRUST PLC

1. The fair value of a financial instrument at initial recognition is normally the transaction price (ie the fair value of the consideration given or received, see also paragraph B5.1.2A and IFRS 13). However, if part of the consideration given or received is for something other than the financial instrument, an entity shall measure the fair value of the financial instrument. For example, the fair value of a long-term loan or receivable that carries no interest can be measured as the present value of all future cash receipts discounted using the prevailing market rate(s) of interest for a similar instrument (similar as to currency, term, type of interest rate and other factors) with a similar credit rating. Any additional amount lent is an expense or a reduction of income unless it qualifies for recognition as some other type of asset.
2. For the purpose of applying the requirement in paragraph 6.5.12 in order to determine whether the hedged future cash flows are expected to occur, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows (contractually or non-contractually specified) are based is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
3. For hedges other than hedges of foreign currency risk, when an entity designates a non-derivative financial asset or a non-derivative financial liability measured at fair value through profit or loss as a hedging instrument, it may only designate the non-derivative financial instrument in its entirety or a proportion of it.
4. However, depending on the nature of the financial instruments and the credit risk information available for particular groups of financial instruments, an entity may not be able to identify significant changes in credit risk for individual financial instruments before the financial instrument becomes past due. This may be the case for financial instruments such as retail loans for which there is little or no updated credit risk information that is routinely obtained and monitored on an individual instrument until a customer breaches the contractual terms. If changes in the credit risk for individual financial instruments are not captured before they become past due, a loss allowance based only on credit information at an individual financial instrument level would not faithfully represent the changes in credit risk since initial recognition.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT TRUST PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) with Independent T-Test^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:BA69 stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:BA69 stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:BA69 CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT TRUST PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	B2
Operational Risk	66	49
Market Risk	42	43
Technical Analysis	55	47
Fundamental Analysis	86	70
Risk Unsystematic	52	33

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 792 signals.

References

1. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
2. C. Claus and C. Boutilier. The dynamics of reinforcement learning in cooperative multiagent systems. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Tenth Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI 98, IAAI 98, July 26-30, 1998, Madison, Wisconsin, USA., pages 746–752, 1998.
3. P. Marbach. Simulated-Based Methods for Markov Decision Processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998
4. D. S. Bernstein, S. Zilberstein, and N. Immerman. The complexity of decentralized control of Markov Decision Processes. In UAI '00: Proceedings of the 16th Conference in Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA, June 30 - July 3, 2000, pages 32–37, 2000.
5. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
6. S. J. Russell and A. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 656–663, 2003.
7. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:BA69 stock?
A: LON:BA69 stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Active Learning (ML) and Independent T-Test
Q: Is LON:BA69 stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:BA69 Stock.
Q: Is CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT TRUST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CITY OF LONDON INVESTMENT TRUST PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:BA69 stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:BA69 is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:BA69 stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:BA69 is (n+16 weeks)

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