Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:CODX Stock Forecast

CODEX ACQUISITIONS PLC Research Report

Summary

Neural networks (NNs), as artificial intelligence (AI) methods, have become very important in making stock market predictions. Much research on the applications of NNs for solving business problems have proven their advantages over statistical and other methods that do not include AI, although there is no optimal methodology for a certain problem. We evaluate CODEX ACQUISITIONS PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:CODX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:CODX stock.

Key Points

  1. What is the use of Markov decision process?
  2. Probability Distribution
  3. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?

LON:CODX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider CODEX ACQUISITIONS PLC Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:CODX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Spearman Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:CODX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:CODX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:CODX CODEX ACQUISITIONS PLC
Time series to forecast n: 27 Nov 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:CODX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for CODEX ACQUISITIONS PLC

  1. Contractual cash flows that are solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding are consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In a basic lending arrangement, consideration for the time value of money (see paragraphs B4.1.9A–B4.1.9E) and credit risk are typically the most significant elements of interest. However, in such an arrangement, interest can also include consideration for other basic lending risks (for example, liquidity risk) and costs (for example, administrative costs) associated with holding the financial asset for a particular period of time. In addition, interest can include a profit margin that is consistent with a basic lending arrangement. In extreme economic circumstances, interest can be negative if, for example, the holder of a financial asset either explicitly or implicitly pays for the deposit of its money for a particular period of time (and that fee exceeds the consideration that the holder receives for the time value of money, credit risk and other basic lending risks and costs).
  2. For the purpose of applying the requirements in paragraphs 6.4.1(c)(i) and B6.4.4–B6.4.6, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows and/or the hedged risk (contractually or noncontractually specified) are based, or the interest rate benchmark on which the cash flows of the hedging instrument are based, is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
  3. When designating a risk component as a hedged item, the hedge accounting requirements apply to that risk component in the same way as they apply to other hedged items that are not risk components. For example, the qualifying criteria apply, including that the hedging relationship must meet the hedge effectiveness requirements, and any hedge ineffectiveness must be measured and recognised.
  4. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

CODEX ACQUISITIONS PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Spearman Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:CODX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:CODX stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:CODX CODEX ACQUISITIONS PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 8234
Market Risk3065
Technical Analysis8535
Fundamental Analysis6430
Risk Unsystematic3880

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 472 signals.

References

  1. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
  2. Chernozhukov V, Chetverikov D, Demirer M, Duflo E, Hansen C, et al. 2018a. Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters. Econom. J. 21:C1–68
  3. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
  4. M. L. Littman. Markov games as a framework for multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Ma- chine Learning, Proceedings of the Eleventh International Conference, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, July 10-13, 1994, pages 157–163, 1994
  5. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
  6. A. Y. Ng, D. Harada, and S. J. Russell. Policy invariance under reward transformations: Theory and application to reward shaping. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 278–287, 1999.
  7. Chernozhukov V, Demirer M, Duflo E, Fernandez-Val I. 2018b. Generic machine learning inference on heteroge- nous treatment effects in randomized experiments. NBER Work. Pap. 24678
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:CODX stock?
A: LON:CODX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Spearman Correlation
Q: Is LON:CODX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:CODX Stock.
Q: Is CODEX ACQUISITIONS PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CODEX ACQUISITIONS PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:CODX stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:CODX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:CODX stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:CODX is (n+1 year)

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