Modelling A.I. in Economics

LON:HVTA HEAVITREE BREWERY PLC

HEAVITREE BREWERY PLC Research Report

Summary

The study of financial markets has been addressed in many works during the last years. Different methods have been used in order to capture the non-linear behavior which is characteristic of these complex systems. The development of profitable strategies has been associated with the predictive character of the market movement, and special attention has been devoted to forecast the trends of financial markets. We evaluate HEAVITREE BREWERY PLC prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HVTA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HVTA stock.

Key Points

  1. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
  2. What is neural prediction?
  3. What is prediction model?

LON:HVTA Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider HEAVITREE BREWERY PLC Decision Process with Inductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:HVTA stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Chi-Square)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:HVTA stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:HVTA Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:HVTA HEAVITREE BREWERY PLC
Time series to forecast n: 30 Nov 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HVTA stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for HEAVITREE BREWERY PLC

  1. When measuring a loss allowance for a lease receivable, the cash flows used for determining the expected credit losses should be consistent with the cash flows used in measuring the lease receivable in accordance with IFRS 16 Leases.
  2. When an entity discontinues measuring the financial instrument that gives rise to the credit risk, or a proportion of that financial instrument, at fair value through profit or loss, that financial instrument's fair value at the date of discontinuation becomes its new carrying amount. Subsequently, the same measurement that was used before designating the financial instrument at fair value through profit or loss shall be applied (including amortisation that results from the new carrying amount). For example, a financial asset that had originally been classified as measured at amortised cost would revert to that measurement and its effective interest rate would be recalculated based on its new gross carrying amount on the date of discontinuing measurement at fair value through profit or loss.
  3. Changes in market conditions that give rise to market risk include changes in a benchmark interest rate, the price of another entity's financial instrument, a commodity price, a foreign exchange rate or an index of prices or rates.
  4. An entity is not required to restate prior periods to reflect the application of these amendments. The entity may restate prior periods if, and only if, it is possible without the use of hindsight. If an entity does not restate prior periods, the entity shall recognise any difference between the previous carrying amount and the carrying amount at the beginning of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the annual reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

HEAVITREE BREWERY PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Chi-Square1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:HVTA stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HVTA stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:HVTA HEAVITREE BREWERY PLC Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba2
Operational Risk 6173
Market Risk7068
Technical Analysis8254
Fundamental Analysis3661
Risk Unsystematic8390

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 659 signals.

References

  1. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
  2. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
  3. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
  4. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
  5. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
  6. Ruiz FJ, Athey S, Blei DM. 2017. SHOPPER: a probabilistic model of consumer choice with substitutes and complements. arXiv:1711.03560 [stat.ML]
  7. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:HVTA stock?
A: LON:HVTA stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Chi-Square
Q: Is LON:HVTA stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:HVTA Stock.
Q: Is HEAVITREE BREWERY PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for HEAVITREE BREWERY PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:HVTA stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:HVTA is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:HVTA stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:HVTA is (n+4 weeks)

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