## Summary

This paper studies the possibilities of making prediction of stock market prices using historical data and machine learning algorithms.** We evaluate INSPIRIT ENERGY HOLDINGS PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the LON:INSP stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:INSP stock.**

## Key Points

- What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
- Can statistics predict the future?
- How useful are statistical predictions?

## LON:INSP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider INSPIRIT ENERGY HOLDINGS PLC Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:INSP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Polynomial Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $R=\left(\begin{array}{ccc}1& 0& 0\\ 0& 1& 0\\ 0& 0& 1\end{array}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:INSP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:INSP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**LON:INSP INSPIRIT ENERGY HOLDINGS PLC

**Time series to forecast n: 28 Nov 2022**for (n+6 month)

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:INSP stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for INSPIRIT ENERGY HOLDINGS PLC

- The assessment of whether an economic relationship exists includes an analysis of the possible behaviour of the hedging relationship during its term to ascertain whether it can be expected to meet the risk management objective. The mere existence of a statistical correlation between two variables does not, by itself, support a valid conclusion that an economic relationship exists.
- An entity may manage and evaluate the performance of a group of financial liabilities or financial assets and financial liabilities in such a way that measuring that group at fair value through profit or loss results in more relevant information. The focus in this instance is on the way the entity manages and evaluates performance, instead of on the nature of its financial instruments.
- If items are hedged together as a group in a cash flow hedge, they might affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. The presentation of hedging gains or losses in that statement depends on the group of items
- An equity method investment cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because the equity method recognises in profit or loss the investor's share of the investee's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. For a similar reason, an investment in a consolidated subsidiary cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because consolidation recognises in profit or loss the subsidiary's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. A hedge of a net investment in a foreign operation is different because it is a hedge of the foreign currency exposure, not a fair value hedge of the change in the value of the investment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

INSPIRIT ENERGY HOLDINGS PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Polynomial Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the LON:INSP stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:INSP stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for LON:INSP INSPIRIT ENERGY HOLDINGS PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B2 | B2 |

Operational Risk | 76 | 53 |

Market Risk | 44 | 33 |

Technical Analysis | 56 | 32 |

Fundamental Analysis | 30 | 74 |

Risk Unsystematic | 81 | 80 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- White H. 1992. Artificial Neural Networks: Approximation and Learning Theory. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
- J. Ott. A Markov decision model for a surveillance application and risk-sensitive Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010.
- Chen, C. L. Liu (1993), "Joint estimation of model parameters and outlier effects in time series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, 88, 284–297.
- N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
- Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
- Cortes C, Vapnik V. 1995. Support-vector networks. Mach. Learn. 20:273–97
- C. Claus and C. Boutilier. The dynamics of reinforcement learning in cooperative multiagent systems. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Tenth Innovative Applications of Artificial Intelligence Conference, AAAI 98, IAAI 98, July 26-30, 1998, Madison, Wisconsin, USA., pages 746–752, 1998.

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:INSP stock?A: LON:INSP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Polynomial Regression

Q: Is LON:INSP stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:INSP Stock.

Q: Is INSPIRIT ENERGY HOLDINGS PLC stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for INSPIRIT ENERGY HOLDINGS PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:INSP stock?

A: The consensus rating for LON:INSP is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for LON:INSP stock?

A: The prediction period for LON:INSP is (n+6 month)

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