LON:WKP Stock Forecast

WORKSPACE GROUP PLC Research Report

Summary

This paper proposes genetic algorithms (GAs) approach to feature discretization and the determination of connection weights for artificial neural networks (ANNs) to predict the stock price index. Previous research proposed many hybrid models of ANN and GA for the method of training the network, feature subset selection, and topology optimization. We evaluate WORKSPACE GROUP PLC prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:WKP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:WKP stock.

Key Points

1. What is a prediction confidence?
2. Can we predict stock market using machine learning?
3. How useful are statistical predictions?

LON:WKP Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider WORKSPACE GROUP PLC Stock Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:WKP stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(s_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:WKP stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:WKP Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:WKP WORKSPACE GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 27 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:WKP stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for WORKSPACE GROUP PLC

1. For the purposes of applying the requirements in paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8, an accounting mismatch is not caused solely by the measurement method that an entity uses to determine the effects of changes in a liability's credit risk. An accounting mismatch in profit or loss would arise only when the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk (as defined in IFRS 7) are expected to be offset by changes in the fair value of another financial instrument. A mismatch that arises solely as a result of the measurement method (ie because an entity does not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from some other changes in its fair value) does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8. For example, an entity may not isolate changes in a liability's credit risk from changes in liquidity risk. If the entity presents the combined effect of both factors in other comprehensive income, a mismatch may occur because changes in liquidity risk may be included in the fair value measurement of the entity's financial assets and the entire fair value change of those assets is presented in profit or loss. However, such a mismatch is caused by measurement imprecision, not the offsetting relationship described in paragraph B5.7.6 and, therefore, does not affect the determination required by paragraphs 5.7.7 and 5.7.8.
2. All investments in equity instruments and contracts on those instruments must be measured at fair value. However, in limited circumstances, cost may be an appropriate estimate of fair value. That may be the case if insufficient more recent information is available to measure fair value, or if there is a wide range of possible fair value measurements and cost represents the best estimate of fair value within that range.
3. In applying the effective interest method, an entity identifies fees that are an integral part of the effective interest rate of a financial instrument. The description of fees for financial services may not be indicative of the nature and substance of the services provided. Fees that are an integral part of the effective interest rate of a financial instrument are treated as an adjustment to the effective interest rate, unless the financial instrument is measured at fair value, with the change in fair value being recognised in profit or loss. In those cases, the fees are recognised as revenue or expense when the instrument is initially recognised.
4. If a collar, in the form of a purchased call and written put, prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the asset at fair value, it continues to measure the asset at fair value. The associated liability is measured at (i) the sum of the call exercise price and fair value of the put option less the time value of the call option, if the call option is in or at the money, or (ii) the sum of the fair value of the asset and the fair value of the put option less the time value of the call option if the call option is out of the money. The adjustment to the associated liability ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the options held and written by the entity. For example, assume an entity transfers a financial asset that is measured at fair value while simultaneously purchasing a call with an exercise price of CU120 and writing a put with an exercise price of CU80. Assume also that the fair value of the asset is CU100 at the date of the transfer. The time value of the put and call are CU1 and CU5 respectively. In this case, the entity recognises an asset of CU100 (the fair value of the asset) and a liability of CU96 [(CU100 + CU1) – CU5]. This gives a net asset value of CU4, which is the fair value of the options held and written by the entity.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

WORKSPACE GROUP PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:WKP stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:WKP stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:WKP WORKSPACE GROUP PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B1	Baa2
Operational Risk	71	88
Market Risk	36	87
Technical Analysis	42	90
Fundamental Analysis	59	82
Risk Unsystematic	90	72

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 658 signals.

References

1. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
2. G. Konidaris, S. Osentoski, and P. Thomas. Value function approximation in reinforcement learning using the Fourier basis. In AAAI, 2011
3. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
4. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Risk, 2:21–42, 2000.
5. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
6. uyer, S. Whiteson, B. Bakker, and N. A. Vlassis. Multiagent reinforcement learning for urban traffic control using coordination graphs. In Machine Learning and Knowledge Discovery in Databases, European Conference, ECML/PKDD 2008, Antwerp, Belgium, September 15-19, 2008, Proceedings, Part I, pages 656–671, 2008.
7. Armstrong, J. S. M. C. Grohman (1972), "A comparative study of methods for long-range market forecasting," Management Science, 19, 211–221.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:WKP stock?
A: LON:WKP stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is LON:WKP stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:WKP Stock.
Q: Is WORKSPACE GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for WORKSPACE GROUP PLC is Sell and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:WKP stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:WKP is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:WKP stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:WKP is (n+6 month)

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