Modelling A.I. in Economics

Machine Learning stock prediction: NSE PEL Stock Prediction (Forecast)

Short-term trading is a difficult task due to fluctuating demand and supply in the stock market. These demands and supply are reflected in stock prices. The stock prices may be predicted using technical indicators. Most of the existing literature considered the limited technical indicators to measure short-term prices. We have considered 82 different combinations of technical indicators to predict the stock prices. We evaluate Piramal Enterprises Limited prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE PEL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE PEL stock.


Keywords: NSE PEL, Piramal Enterprises Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is a prediction confidence?
  2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  3. How useful are statistical predictions?

NSE PEL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

In this paper, we propose a robust and novel hybrid model for prediction of stock returns. The proposed model is constituted of two linear models: autoregressive moving average model, exponential smoothing model and a non-linear model: recurrent neural network. Training data for recurrent neural network is generated by a new regression model. Recurrent neural network produces satisfactory predictions as compared to linear models. With the goal to further improve the accuracy of predictions, the proposed hybrid prediction model merges predictions obtained from these three prediction based models. We consider Piramal Enterprises Limited Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE PEL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE PEL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE PEL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE PEL Piramal Enterprises Limited
Time series to forecast n: 10 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE PEL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Piramal Enterprises Limited

  1. When determining whether the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses is required, an entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that may affect the credit risk on a financial instrument in accordance with paragraph 5.5.17(c). An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information when determining whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition.
  2. For the purpose of determining whether a forecast transaction (or a component thereof) is highly probable as required by paragraph 6.3.3, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows (contractually or non-contractually specified) are based is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
  3. In applying the effective interest method, an entity identifies fees that are an integral part of the effective interest rate of a financial instrument. The description of fees for financial services may not be indicative of the nature and substance of the services provided. Fees that are an integral part of the effective interest rate of a financial instrument are treated as an adjustment to the effective interest rate, unless the financial instrument is measured at fair value, with the change in fair value being recognised in profit or loss. In those cases, the fees are recognised as revenue or expense when the instrument is initially recognised.
  4. At the date of initial application, an entity is permitted to make the designation in paragraph 2.5 for contracts that already exist on the date but only if it designates all similar contracts. The change in the net assets resulting from such designations shall be recognised in retained earnings at the date of initial application.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Piramal Enterprises Limited assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE PEL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE PEL stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE PEL Piramal Enterprises Limited Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 9048
Market Risk5546
Technical Analysis6383
Fundamental Analysis3456
Risk Unsystematic6036

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 545 signals.

References

  1. G. J. Laurent, L. Matignon, and N. L. Fort-Piat. The world of independent learners is not Markovian. Int. J. Know.-Based Intell. Eng. Syst., 15(1):55–64, 2011
  2. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
  3. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
  4. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  5. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  6. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
  7. Bottou L. 2012. Stochastic gradient descent tricks. In Neural Networks: Tricks of the Trade, ed. G Montavon, G Orr, K-R Müller, pp. 421–36. Berlin: Springer
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NSE PEL stock?
A: NSE PEL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is NSE PEL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE PEL Stock.
Q: Is Piramal Enterprises Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Piramal Enterprises Limited is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE PEL stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE PEL is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE PEL stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE PEL is (n+6 month)

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