Machine Learning stock prediction: LON:LWI Stock Prediction

Predicting the future price of financial assets has always been an important research topic in the field of quantitative finance. This paper attempts to use the latest artificial intelligence technologies to design and implement a framework for financial asset price prediction. We evaluate LOWLAND INVESTMENT COMPANY PLC prediction models with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:LWI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:LWI stock.


Keywords: LON:LWI, LOWLAND INVESTMENT COMPANY PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Can machine learning predict?
  2. Dominated Move
  3. Can machine learning predict?

LON:LWI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

With the advent of machine learning, numerous approaches have been proposed to forecast stock prices. Various models have been developed to date such as Recurrent Neural Networks, Long Short-Term Memory, Convolutional Neural Network sliding window, etc., but were not accurate enough. Here, the aim is to predict the price of a stock and compare the results obtained using three major algorithms namely Kalman filters, XGBoost and ARIMA. We consider LOWLAND INVESTMENT COMPANY PLC Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:LWI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:LWI stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:LWI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:LWI LOWLAND INVESTMENT COMPANY PLC
Time series to forecast n: 12 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:LWI stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for LOWLAND INVESTMENT COMPANY PLC

  1. An entity shall apply the impairment requirements in Section 5.5 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8 subject to paragraphs 7.2.15 and 7.2.18–7.2.20.
  2. For purchased or originated credit-impaired financial assets, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the credit-adjusted effective interest rate determined at initial recognition.
  3. Lifetime expected credit losses are not recognised on a financial instrument simply because it was considered to have low credit risk in the previous reporting period and is not considered to have low credit risk at the reporting date. In such a case, an entity shall determine whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition and thus whether lifetime expected credit losses are required to be recognised in accordance with paragraph 5.5.3.
  4. For the purpose of determining whether a forecast transaction (or a component thereof) is highly probable as required by paragraph 6.3.3, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows (contractually or non-contractually specified) are based is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

LOWLAND INVESTMENT COMPANY PLC assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:LWI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:LWI stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:LWI LOWLAND INVESTMENT COMPANY PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1B1
Operational Risk 7742
Market Risk3579
Technical Analysis6855
Fundamental Analysis8263
Risk Unsystematic9061

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 543 signals.

References

  1. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
  2. Bertsimas D, King A, Mazumder R. 2016. Best subset selection via a modern optimization lens. Ann. Stat. 44:813–52
  3. E. Collins. Using Markov decision processes to optimize a nonlinear functional of the final distribution, with manufacturing applications. In Stochastic Modelling in Innovative Manufacturing, pages 30–45. Springer, 1997
  4. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
  5. Van der Vaart AW. 2000. Asymptotic Statistics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  6. Breiman L. 2001a. Random forests. Mach. Learn. 45:5–32
  7. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:LWI stock?
A: LON:LWI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is LON:LWI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:LWI Stock.
Q: Is LOWLAND INVESTMENT COMPANY PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for LOWLAND INVESTMENT COMPANY PLC is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:LWI stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:LWI is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:LWI stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:LWI is (n+3 month)

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