Modelling A.I. in Economics

META Options & Futures Prediction (Forecast)

Forecasting stock exchange rates is an important financial problem that is receiving increasing attention. During the last few years, a number of neural network models and hybrid models have been proposed for obtaining accurate prediction results, in an attempt to outperform the traditional linear and nonlinear approaches. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of neural network models which are known to be dynamic and effective in stock-market predictions. We evaluate Meta Platforms prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the META stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold META stock.


Keywords: META, Meta Platforms, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Market Outlook
  2. What is prediction model?
  3. What are main components of Markov decision process?

META Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Accurate prediction of stock market returns is a very challenging task due to volatile and non-linear nature of the financial stock markets. With the introduction of artificial intelligence and increased computational capabilities, programmed methods of prediction have proved to be more efficient in predicting stock prices. We consider Meta Platforms Stock Decision Process with Ridge Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of META stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of META stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

META Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: META Meta Platforms
Time series to forecast n: 03 Nov 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold META stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Meta Platforms

  1. Unless paragraph 6.8.8 applies, for a hedge of a non-contractually specified benchmark component of interest rate risk, an entity shall apply the requirement in paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8—that the risk component shall be separately identifiable—only at the inception of the hedging relationship.
  2. An equity method investment cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because the equity method recognises in profit or loss the investor's share of the investee's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. For a similar reason, an investment in a consolidated subsidiary cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because consolidation recognises in profit or loss the subsidiary's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. A hedge of a net investment in a foreign operation is different because it is a hedge of the foreign currency exposure, not a fair value hedge of the change in the value of the investment.
  3. An equity method investment cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because the equity method recognises in profit or loss the investor's share of the investee's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. For a similar reason, an investment in a consolidated subsidiary cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because consolidation recognises in profit or loss the subsidiary's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. A hedge of a net investment in a foreign operation is different because it is a hedge of the foreign currency exposure, not a fair value hedge of the change in the value of the investment.
  4. However, the fact that a financial asset is non-recourse does not in itself necessarily preclude the financial asset from meeting the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). In such situations, the creditor is required to assess ('look through to') the particular underlying assets or cash flows to determine whether the contractual cash flows of the financial asset being classified are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. If the terms of the financial asset give rise to any other cash flows or limit the cash flows in a manner inconsistent with payments representing principal and interest, the financial asset does not meet the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(b) and 4.1.2A(b). Whether the underlying assets are financial assets or non-financial assets does not in itself affect this assessment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Meta Platforms assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the META stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold META stock.

Financial State Forecast for META Meta Platforms Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B1
Operational Risk 3337
Market Risk6878
Technical Analysis3037
Fundamental Analysis6067
Risk Unsystematic5559

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 612 signals.

References

  1. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
  2. Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM
  3. Mikolov T, Yih W, Zweig G. 2013c. Linguistic regularities in continuous space word representations. In Pro- ceedings of the 2013 Conference of the North American Chapter of the Association for Computational Linguistics: Human Language Technologies, pp. 746–51. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
  4. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
  5. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
  6. Wu X, Kumar V, Quinlan JR, Ghosh J, Yang Q, et al. 2008. Top 10 algorithms in data mining. Knowl. Inform. Syst. 14:1–37
  7. Candès E, Tao T. 2007. The Dantzig selector: statistical estimation when p is much larger than n. Ann. Stat. 35:2313–51
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for META stock?
A: META stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is META stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold META Stock.
Q: Is Meta Platforms stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Meta Platforms is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of META stock?
A: The consensus rating for META is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for META stock?
A: The prediction period for META is (n+8 weeks)

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