Modelling A.I. in Economics

MTEX Mannatech Incorporated Common Stock Stock Forecast

Mannatech Incorporated Common Stock Research Report

Summary

Machine Learning refers to a concept in which a machine has been programmed to learn specific patterns from historical data using powerful algorithms and make predictions in future based on the patterns it learnt. Machine learning is a branch of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the term proposed in 1959 by Arthur Samuel who defined it as the ability of computers or machines to learn new rules and concepts from data without being explicitly programmed. We evaluate Mannatech Incorporated Common Stock prediction models with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MTEX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold MTEX stock.

Key Points

  1. Is Target price a good indicator?
  2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
  3. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?

MTEX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Mannatech Incorporated Common Stock Stock Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of MTEX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Statistical Hypothesis Testing)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of MTEX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

MTEX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: MTEX Mannatech Incorporated Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 26 Nov 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold MTEX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Mannatech Incorporated Common Stock

  1. An equity method investment cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because the equity method recognises in profit or loss the investor's share of the investee's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. For a similar reason, an investment in a consolidated subsidiary cannot be a hedged item in a fair value hedge. This is because consolidation recognises in profit or loss the subsidiary's profit or loss, instead of changes in the investment's fair value. A hedge of a net investment in a foreign operation is different because it is a hedge of the foreign currency exposure, not a fair value hedge of the change in the value of the investment.
  2. If items are hedged together as a group in a cash flow hedge, they might affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. The presentation of hedging gains or losses in that statement depends on the group of items
  3. For hedges other than hedges of foreign currency risk, when an entity designates a non-derivative financial asset or a non-derivative financial liability measured at fair value through profit or loss as a hedging instrument, it may only designate the non-derivative financial instrument in its entirety or a proportion of it.
  4. For the purpose of applying paragraphs B4.1.11(b) and B4.1.12(b), irrespective of the event or circumstance that causes the early termination of the contract, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation for that early termination. For example, a party may pay or receive reasonable compensation when it chooses to terminate the contract early (or otherwise causes the early termination to occur).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Mannatech Incorporated Common Stock assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) with Statistical Hypothesis Testing1,2,3,4 and conclude that the MTEX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold MTEX stock.

Financial State Forecast for MTEX Mannatech Incorporated Common Stock Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Caa2B1
Operational Risk 4648
Market Risk3786
Technical Analysis3945
Fundamental Analysis5278
Risk Unsystematic5238

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 861 signals.

References

  1. Bewley, R. M. Yang (1998), "On the size and power of system tests for cointegration," Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 675–679.
  2. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
  3. J. N. Foerster, Y. M. Assael, N. de Freitas, and S. Whiteson. Learning to communicate with deep multi-agent reinforcement learning. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 29: Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems 2016, December 5-10, 2016, Barcelona, Spain, pages 2137–2145, 2016.
  4. A. Tamar and S. Mannor. Variance adjusted actor critic algorithms. arXiv preprint arXiv:1310.3697, 2013.
  5. Farrell MH, Liang T, Misra S. 2018. Deep neural networks for estimation and inference: application to causal effects and other semiparametric estimands. arXiv:1809.09953 [econ.EM]
  6. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
  7. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for MTEX stock?
A: MTEX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Statistical Hypothesis Testing
Q: Is MTEX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold MTEX Stock.
Q: Is Mannatech Incorporated Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Mannatech Incorporated Common Stock is Hold and assigned short-term Caa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of MTEX stock?
A: The consensus rating for MTEX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for MTEX stock?
A: The prediction period for MTEX is (n+4 weeks)

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