Neural networks (NNs), as artificial intelligence (AI) methods, have become very important in making stock market predictions. Much research on the applications of NNs for solving business problems have proven their advantages over statistical and other methods that do not include AI, although there is no optimal methodology for a certain problem. We evaluate NASDAQ Composite Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NASDAQ Composite Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NASDAQ Composite Index stock.

Keywords: NASDAQ Composite Index, NASDAQ Composite Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Short/Long Term Stocks
2. Is now good time to invest?
3. What is prediction model?

## NASDAQ Composite Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Security indices are the main tools for evaluation of the status of financial markets. Moreover, a main part of the economy of any country is constituted of investment in stock markets. Therefore, investors could maximize the return of investment if it becomes possible to predict the future trend of stock market with appropriate methods. The nonlinearity and nonstationarity of financial series make their prediction complicated. This study seeks to evaluate the prediction power of machine-learning models in a stock market. We consider NASDAQ Composite Index Stock Decision Process with Logistic Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of NASDAQ Composite Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $∑ i = 1 n s i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NASDAQ Composite Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## NASDAQ Composite Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NASDAQ Composite Index NASDAQ Composite Index
Time series to forecast n: 05 Nov 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NASDAQ Composite Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for NASDAQ Composite Index

1. If an entity has applied paragraph 7.2.6 then at the date of initial application the entity shall recognise any difference between the fair value of the entire hybrid contract at the date of initial application and the sum of the fair values of the components of the hybrid contract at the date of initial application in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
2. An entity shall apply the amendments to IFRS 9 made by IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.37–7.2.42.
3. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 at the same time it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.1–7.2.28 instead of paragraphs 7.2.38–7.2.42.
4. In addition to those hedging relationships specified in paragraph 6.9.1, an entity shall apply the requirements in paragraphs 6.9.11 and 6.9.12 to new hedging relationships in which an alternative benchmark rate is designated as a non-contractually specified risk component (see paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8) when, because of interest rate benchmark reform, that risk component is not separately identifiable at the date it is designated.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

NASDAQ Composite Index assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Logistic Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NASDAQ Composite Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NASDAQ Composite Index stock.

### Financial State Forecast for NASDAQ Composite Index NASDAQ Composite Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2B1
Operational Risk 8548
Market Risk8163
Technical Analysis6259
Fundamental Analysis4652
Risk Unsystematic8964

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 89 out of 100 with 732 signals.

## References

1. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
2. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
3. R. Sutton, D. McAllester, S. Singh, and Y. Mansour. Policy gradient methods for reinforcement learning with function approximation. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1057–1063, 2000
4. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2015. Comparative politics and the synthetic control method. Am. J. Political Sci. 59:495–510
5. Abadir, K. M., K. Hadri E. Tzavalis (1999), "The influence of VAR dimensions on estimator biases," Econometrica, 67, 163–181.
6. Angrist JD, Pischke JS. 2008. Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion. Princeton, NJ: Princeton Univ. Press
7. Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NASDAQ Composite Index stock?
A: NASDAQ Composite Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is NASDAQ Composite Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NASDAQ Composite Index Stock.
Q: Is NASDAQ Composite Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for NASDAQ Composite Index is Hold and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NASDAQ Composite Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for NASDAQ Composite Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NASDAQ Composite Index stock?
A: The prediction period for NASDAQ Composite Index is (n+1 year)