Modelling A.I. in Economics

NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Shares (Forecast)

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Shares Research Report

Summary

In recent years there has been a significant growth of interest in the incorporation of historical series of variables related to stock prediction into mathematical models or computational algorithms in order to generate predictions or indications about expected price movements. We evaluate Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Shares prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NCLH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NCLH stock.

Key Points

  1. What statistical methods are used to analyze data?
  2. How do predictive algorithms actually work?
  3. Market Signals

NCLH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Shares Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of NCLH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NCLH stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NCLH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Shares
Time series to forecast n: 28 Nov 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NCLH stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Shares

  1. For example, Entity A, whose functional currency is its local currency, has a firm commitment to pay FC150,000 for advertising expenses in nine months' time and a firm commitment to sell finished goods for FC150,000 in 15 months' time. Entity A enters into a foreign currency derivative that settles in nine months' time under which it receives FC100 and pays CU70. Entity A has no other exposures to FC. Entity A does not manage foreign currency risk on a net basis. Hence, Entity A cannot apply hedge accounting for a hedging relationship between the foreign currency derivative and a net position of FC100 (consisting of FC150,000 of the firm purchase commitment—ie advertising services—and FC149,900 (of the FC150,000) of the firm sale commitment) for a nine-month period.
  2. An entity has not retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. An entity has retained control of a transferred asset if the transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset. A transferee has the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if it is traded in an active market because the transferee could repurchase the transferred asset in the market if it needs to return the asset to the entity. For example, a transferee may have the practical ability to sell a transferred asset if the transferred asset is subject to an option that allows the entity to repurchase it, but the transferee can readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the option is exercised. A transferee does not have the practical ability to sell the transferred asset if the entity retains such an option and the transferee cannot readily obtain the transferred asset in the market if the entity exercises its option
  3. An entity need not undertake an exhaustive search for information but shall consider all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant to the estimate of expected credit losses, including the effect of expected prepayments. The information used shall include factors that are specific to the borrower, general economic conditions and an assessment of both the current as well as the forecast direction of conditions at the reporting date. An entity may use various sources of data, that may be both internal (entity-specific) and external. Possible data sources include internal historical credit loss experience, internal ratings, credit loss experience of other entities and external ratings, reports and statistics. Entities that have no, or insufficient, sources of entityspecific data may use peer group experience for the comparable financial instrument (or groups of financial instruments).
  4. When measuring the fair values of the part that continues to be recognised and the part that is derecognised for the purposes of applying paragraph 3.2.13, an entity applies the fair value measurement requirements in IFRS 13 Fair Value Measurement in addition to paragraph 3.2.14.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Shares assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NCLH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NCLH stock.

Financial State Forecast for NCLH Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Shares Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Baa2
Operational Risk 7264
Market Risk3158
Technical Analysis7786
Fundamental Analysis5889
Risk Unsystematic7386

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 492 signals.

References

  1. M. Petrik and D. Subramanian. An approximate solution method for large risk-averse Markov decision processes. In Proceedings of the 28th International Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 2012.
  2. Wager S, Athey S. 2017. Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 113:1228–42
  3. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016
  4. Mnih A, Teh YW. 2012. A fast and simple algorithm for training neural probabilistic language models. In Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 419–26. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  5. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
  6. M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
  7. Harris ZS. 1954. Distributional structure. Word 10:146–62
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NCLH stock?
A: NCLH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is NCLH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NCLH Stock.
Q: Is Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Ordinary Shares is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NCLH stock?
A: The consensus rating for NCLH is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NCLH stock?
A: The prediction period for NCLH is (n+16 weeks)

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