Modelling A.I. in Economics

NSE IRCTC Target Price Prediction (Forecast)

The stock market prediction has attracted much attention from academia as well as business. Due to the non-linear, volatile and complex nature of the market, it is quite difficult to predict. As the stock markets grow bigger, more investors pay attention to develop a systematic approach to predict the stock market. We evaluate Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE IRCTC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE IRCTC stock.


Keywords: NSE IRCTC, Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Can neural networks predict stock market?
  2. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  3. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

NSE IRCTC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock price prediction has always been a challenging task for the researchers in financial domain. While the Efficient Market Hypothesis claims that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are work in the literature that have demonstrated that stock price movements can be forecasted with a reasonable degree of accuracy, if appropriate variables are chosen and suitable predictive models are built using those variables. In this work, we present a robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction using statistical, machine learning and deep learning methods We consider Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE IRCTC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE IRCTC stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

NSE IRCTC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE IRCTC Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited
Time series to forecast n: 07 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE IRCTC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited

  1. An entity shall apply the amendments to IFRS 9 made by IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.37–7.2.42.
  2. When measuring a loss allowance for a lease receivable, the cash flows used for determining the expected credit losses should be consistent with the cash flows used in measuring the lease receivable in accordance with IFRS 16 Leases.
  3. If the contractual cash flows on a financial asset have been renegotiated or otherwise modified, but the financial asset is not derecognised, that financial asset is not automatically considered to have lower credit risk. An entity shall assess whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on the basis of all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort. This includes historical and forwardlooking information and an assessment of the credit risk over the expected life of the financial asset, which includes information about the circumstances that led to the modification. Evidence that the criteria for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses are no longer met may include a history of up-to-date and timely payment performance against the modified contractual terms. Typically a customer would need to demonstrate consistently good payment behaviour over a period of time before the credit risk is considered to have decreased.
  4. For the purposes of measuring expected credit losses, the estimate of expected cash shortfalls shall reflect the cash flows expected from collateral and other credit enhancements that are part of the contractual terms and are not recognised separately by the entity. The estimate of expected cash shortfalls on a collateralised financial instrument reflects the amount and timing of cash flows that are expected from foreclosure on the collateral less the costs of obtaining and selling the collateral, irrespective of whether foreclosure is probable (ie the estimate of expected cash flows considers the probability of a foreclosure and the cash flows that would result from it). Consequently, any cash flows that are expected from the realisation of the collateral beyond the contractual maturity of the contract should be included in this analysis. Any collateral obtained as a result of foreclosure is not recognised as an asset that is separate from the collateralised financial instrument unless it meets the relevant recognition criteria for an asset in this or other Standards.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE IRCTC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE IRCTC stock.

Financial State Forecast for NSE IRCTC Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Operational Risk 3468
Market Risk8078
Technical Analysis7738
Fundamental Analysis4248
Risk Unsystematic5174

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 90 out of 100 with 814 signals.

References

  1. Efron B, Hastie T, Johnstone I, Tibshirani R. 2004. Least angle regression. Ann. Stat. 32:407–99
  2. Semenova V, Goldman M, Chernozhukov V, Taddy M. 2018. Orthogonal ML for demand estimation: high dimensional causal inference in dynamic panels. arXiv:1712.09988 [stat.ML]
  3. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
  4. Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
  5. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
  6. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
  7. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NSE IRCTC stock?
A: NSE IRCTC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Rank-Sum Test
Q: Is NSE IRCTC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE IRCTC Stock.
Q: Is Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Indian Railway Catering And Tourism Corporation Limited is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE IRCTC stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE IRCTC is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE IRCTC stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE IRCTC is (n+6 month)

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