Nutrien Ltd. Common Shares Research Report

## Summary

The research reported in the paper focuses on the stock market prediction problem, the main aim being the development of a methodology to forecast the stock closing price. The methodology is based on some novel variable selection methods and an analysis of neural network and support vector machines based prediction models. Also, a hybrid approach which combines the use of the variables derived from technical and fundamental analysis of stock market indicators in order to improve prediction results of the proposed approaches is reported in this paper. We evaluate Nutrien Ltd. Common Shares prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NTR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NTR stock.

## Key Points

1. Is now good time to invest?
2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
3. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading

## NTR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Nutrien Ltd. Common Shares Stock Decision Process with Inductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of NTR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NTR stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## NTR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NTR Nutrien Ltd. Common Shares
Time series to forecast n: 24 Nov 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NTR stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Nutrien Ltd. Common Shares

1. Such designation may be used whether paragraph 4.3.3 requires the embedded derivatives to be separated from the host contract or prohibits such separation. However, paragraph 4.3.5 would not justify designating the hybrid contract as at fair value through profit or loss in the cases set out in paragraph 4.3.5(a) and (b) because doing so would not reduce complexity or increase reliability.
2. For a discontinued hedging relationship, when the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged future cash flows had been based is changed as required by interest rate benchmark reform, for the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.12 in order to determine whether the hedged future cash flows are expected to occur, the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve for that hedging relationship shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows will be based.
3. An entity shall apply Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020 to financial liabilities that are modified or exchanged on or after the beginning of the annual reporting period in which the entity first applies the amendment.
4. In the reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments, an entity is not required to present the quantitative information required by paragraph 28(f) of IAS 8.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Nutrien Ltd. Common Shares assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NTR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NTR stock.

### Financial State Forecast for NTR Nutrien Ltd. Common Shares Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2B3
Operational Risk 7433
Market Risk7890
Technical Analysis5536
Fundamental Analysis6139
Risk Unsystematic7440

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 72 out of 100 with 511 signals.

## References

1. C. Szepesvári. Algorithms for Reinforcement Learning. Synthesis Lectures on Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning. Morgan & Claypool Publishers, 2010
2. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
3. Belsley, D. A. (1988), "Modelling and forecast reliability," International Journal of Forecasting, 4, 427–447.
4. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
5. G. Theocharous and A. Hallak. Lifetime value marketing using reinforcement learning. RLDM 2013, page 19, 2013
6. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98
7. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NTR stock?
A: NTR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is NTR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell NTR Stock.
Q: Is Nutrien Ltd. Common Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Nutrien Ltd. Common Shares is Sell and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NTR stock?
A: The consensus rating for NTR is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for NTR stock?
A: The prediction period for NTR is (n+4 weeks)