Organigram Holdings Inc. Common Shares Research Report

## Summary

The categorization of high dimensional data present a fascinating challenge to machine learning models as frequent number of highly correlated dimensions or attributes can affect the accuracy of classification model. In this paper, the problem of high dimensionality of stock exchange is investigated to predict the market trends by applying the principal component analysis (PCA) with linear regression. PCA can help to improve the predictive performance of machine learning methods while reducing the redundancy among the data. We evaluate Organigram Holdings Inc. Common Shares prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the OGI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold OGI stock.

## Key Points

1. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?
2. What is prediction model?
3. Operational Risk

## OGI Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Organigram Holdings Inc. Common Shares Stock Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of OGI stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) $\stackrel{\to }{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of OGI stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## OGI Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: OGI Organigram Holdings Inc. Common Shares
Time series to forecast n: 25 Nov 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold OGI stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Organigram Holdings Inc. Common Shares

1. An entity may manage and evaluate the performance of a group of financial liabilities or financial assets and financial liabilities in such a way that measuring that group at fair value through profit or loss results in more relevant information. The focus in this instance is on the way the entity manages and evaluates performance, instead of on the nature of its financial instruments.
2. When designating a group of items as the hedged item, or a combination of financial instruments as the hedging instrument, an entity shall prospectively cease applying paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.6 to an individual item or financial instrument in accordance with paragraphs 6.8.9, 6.8.10, or 6.8.11, as relevant, when the uncertainty arising from interest rate benchmark reform is no longer present with respect to the hedged risk and/or the timing and the amount of the interest rate benchmark-based cash flows of that item or financial instrument.
3. An entity that first applies these amendments after it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.32–7.2.34. The entity shall also apply the other transition requirements in this Standard necessary for applying these amendments. For that purpose, references to the date of initial application shall be read as referring to the beginning of the reporting period in which an entity first applies these amendments (date of initial application of these amendments).
4. A layer component that includes a prepayment option is not eligible to be designated as a hedged item in a fair value hedge if the prepayment option's fair value is affected by changes in the hedged risk, unless the designated layer includes the effect of the related prepayment option when determining the change in the fair value of the hedged item.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Organigram Holdings Inc. Common Shares assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the OGI stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold OGI stock.

### Financial State Forecast for OGI Organigram Holdings Inc. Common Shares Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 5181
Market Risk8045
Technical Analysis7264
Fundamental Analysis3654
Risk Unsystematic6548

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 78 out of 100 with 841 signals.

## References

1. Hirano K, Porter JR. 2009. Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules. Econometrica 77:1683–701
2. Semenova V, Goldman M, Chernozhukov V, Taddy M. 2018. Orthogonal ML for demand estimation: high dimensional causal inference in dynamic panels. arXiv:1712.09988 [stat.ML]
3. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
4. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
5. M. J. Hausknecht. Cooperation and Communication in Multiagent Deep Reinforcement Learning. PhD thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, 2016
6. O. Bardou, N. Frikha, and G. Pag`es. Computing VaR and CVaR using stochastic approximation and adaptive unconstrained importance sampling. Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 15(3):173–210, 2009.
7. L. Prashanth and M. Ghavamzadeh. Actor-critic algorithms for risk-sensitive MDPs. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 26, pages 252–260, 2013.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for OGI stock?
A: OGI stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is OGI stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold OGI Stock.
Q: Is Organigram Holdings Inc. Common Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Organigram Holdings Inc. Common Shares is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of OGI stock?
A: The consensus rating for OGI is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for OGI stock?
A: The prediction period for OGI is (n+1 year)