Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is the cornerstone of the modern financial theory and it states that it is impossible to predict the price of any stock using any trend, fundamental or technical analysis. Stock trading is one of the most important activities in the world of finance. Stock price prediction has been an age-old problem and many researchers from academia and business have tried to solve it using many techniques ranging from basic statistics to machine learning using relevant information such as news sentiment and historical prices. We evaluate Orient Cement Limited prediction models with Deductive Inference (ML) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE ORIENTCEM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE ORIENTCEM stock.

Keywords: NSE ORIENTCEM, Orient Cement Limited, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. What is a prediction confidence?
2. What is statistical models in machine learning?
3. What is the use of Markov decision process?

## NSE ORIENTCEM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

One decision in Stock Market can make huge impact on an investor's life. The stock market is a complex system and often covered in mystery, it is therefore, very difficult to analyze all the impacting factors before making a decision. In this research, we have tried to design a stock market prediction model which is based on different factors. We consider Orient Cement Limited Stock Decision Process with Paired T-Test where A is the set of discrete actions of NSE ORIENTCEM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Deductive Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of NSE ORIENTCEM stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## NSE ORIENTCEM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: NSE ORIENTCEM Orient Cement Limited
Time series to forecast n: 10 Nov 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE ORIENTCEM stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Orient Cement Limited

1. An entity shall apply the amendments to IFRS 9 made by IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8, except as specified in paragraphs 7.2.37–7.2.42.
2. If such a mismatch would be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present all changes in fair value (including the effects of changes in the credit risk of the liability) in profit or loss. If such a mismatch would not be created or enlarged, the entity is required to present the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income.
3. If the underlyings are not the same but are economically related, there can be situations in which the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item move in the same direction, for example, because the price differential between the two related underlyings changes while the underlyings themselves do not move significantly. That is still consistent with an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item if the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are still expected to typically move in the opposite direction when the underlyings move.
4. The requirement that an economic relationship exists means that the hedging instrument and the hedged item have values that generally move in the opposite direction because of the same risk, which is the hedged risk. Hence, there must be an expectation that the value of the hedging instrument and the value of the hedged item will systematically change in response to movements in either the same underlying or underlyings that are economically related in such a way that they respond in a similar way to the risk that is being hedged (for example, Brent and WTI crude oil).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Orient Cement Limited assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) with Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the NSE ORIENTCEM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE ORIENTCEM stock.

### Financial State Forecast for NSE ORIENTCEM Orient Cement Limited Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba2
Operational Risk 6582
Market Risk4669
Technical Analysis7242
Fundamental Analysis6385
Risk Unsystematic8367

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 76 out of 100 with 581 signals.

## References

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4. V. Konda and J. Tsitsiklis. Actor-Critic algorithms. In Proceedings of Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 12, pages 1008–1014, 2000
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Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for NSE ORIENTCEM stock?
A: NSE ORIENTCEM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Deductive Inference (ML) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is NSE ORIENTCEM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold NSE ORIENTCEM Stock.
Q: Is Orient Cement Limited stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Orient Cement Limited is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of NSE ORIENTCEM stock?
A: The consensus rating for NSE ORIENTCEM is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for NSE ORIENTCEM stock?
A: The prediction period for NSE ORIENTCEM is (n+8 weeks)