Modelling A.I. in Economics

PHG Koninklijke Philips N.V. NY Registry Shares Stock Forecast

Koninklijke Philips N.V. NY Registry Shares Research Report

Summary

Stock market is considered chaotic, complex, volatile and dynamic. Undoubtedly, its prediction is one of the most challenging tasks in time series forecasting. Moreover existing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approaches fail to provide encouraging results. Meanwhile advances in machine learning have presented favourable results for speech recognition, image classification and language processing. We evaluate Koninklijke Philips N.V. NY Registry Shares prediction models with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PHG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy PHG stock.

Key Points

  1. Reaction Function
  2. Game Theory
  3. How useful are statistical predictions?

PHG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Koninklijke Philips N.V. NY Registry Shares Stock Decision Process with Supervised Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of PHG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Supervised Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PHG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PHG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PHG Koninklijke Philips N.V. NY Registry Shares
Time series to forecast n: 25 Nov 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy PHG stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Koninklijke Philips N.V. NY Registry Shares

  1. If the contractual cash flows on a financial asset have been renegotiated or otherwise modified, but the financial asset is not derecognised, that financial asset is not automatically considered to have lower credit risk. An entity shall assess whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on the basis of all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort. This includes historical and forwardlooking information and an assessment of the credit risk over the expected life of the financial asset, which includes information about the circumstances that led to the modification. Evidence that the criteria for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses are no longer met may include a history of up-to-date and timely payment performance against the modified contractual terms. Typically a customer would need to demonstrate consistently good payment behaviour over a period of time before the credit risk is considered to have decreased.
  2. A similar example of a non-financial item is a specific type of crude oil from a particular oil field that is priced off the relevant benchmark crude oil. If an entity sells that crude oil under a contract using a contractual pricing formula that sets the price per barrel at the benchmark crude oil price minus CU10 with a floor of CU15, the entity can designate as the hedged item the entire cash flow variability under the sales contract that is attributable to the change in the benchmark crude oil price. However, the entity cannot designate a component that is equal to the full change in the benchmark crude oil price. Hence, as long as the forward price (for each delivery) does not fall below CU25, the hedged item has the same cash flow variability as a crude oil sale at the benchmark crude oil price (or with a positive spread). However, if the forward price for any delivery falls below CU25, the hedged item has a lower cash flow variability than a crude oil sale at the benchmark crude oil price (or with a positive spread).
  3. When an entity discontinues measuring the financial instrument that gives rise to the credit risk, or a proportion of that financial instrument, at fair value through profit or loss, that financial instrument's fair value at the date of discontinuation becomes its new carrying amount. Subsequently, the same measurement that was used before designating the financial instrument at fair value through profit or loss shall be applied (including amortisation that results from the new carrying amount). For example, a financial asset that had originally been classified as measured at amortised cost would revert to that measurement and its effective interest rate would be recalculated based on its new gross carrying amount on the date of discontinuing measurement at fair value through profit or loss.
  4. If an entity previously accounted for a derivative liability that is linked to, and must be settled by, delivery of an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) at cost in accordance with IAS 39, it shall measure that derivative liability at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Koninklijke Philips N.V. NY Registry Shares assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PHG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy PHG stock.

Financial State Forecast for PHG Koninklijke Philips N.V. NY Registry Shares Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1Ba3
Operational Risk 6286
Market Risk5948
Technical Analysis4255
Fundamental Analysis5480
Risk Unsystematic8361

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 521 signals.

References

  1. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
  2. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1997), "An empirical study of seasonal unit roots in forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, 13, 341–355.
  3. Challen, D. W. A. J. Hagger (1983), Macroeconomic Systems: Construction, Validation and Applications. New York: St. Martin's Press.
  4. Bai J, Ng S. 2002. Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models. Econometrica 70:191–221
  5. Vilnis L, McCallum A. 2015. Word representations via Gaussian embedding. arXiv:1412.6623 [cs.CL]
  6. P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
  7. V. Borkar. A sensitivity formula for the risk-sensitive cost and the actor-critic algorithm. Systems & Control Letters, 44:339–346, 2001
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for PHG stock?
A: PHG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Supervised Machine Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is PHG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy PHG Stock.
Q: Is Koninklijke Philips N.V. NY Registry Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Koninklijke Philips N.V. NY Registry Shares is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PHG stock?
A: The consensus rating for PHG is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for PHG stock?
A: The prediction period for PHG is (n+8 weeks)

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