RCI.B:TSX Options & Futures Prediction

Rogers Communications Inc. Research Report

Summary

Stock prediction is a very hot topic in our life. However, in the early time, because of some reasons and the limitation of the device, only a few people had the access to the study. Thanks to the rapid development of science and technology, in recent years more and more people are devoted to the study of the prediction and it becomes easier and easier for us to make stock prediction by using different ways now, including machine learning, deep learning and so on. We evaluate Rogers Communications Inc. prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the RCI.B:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy RCI.B:TSX stock.

Key Points

  1. Nash Equilibria
  2. How can neural networks improve predictions?
  3. Investment Risk

RCI.B:TSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Rogers Communications Inc. Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of RCI.B:TSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of RCI.B:TSX stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

RCI.B:TSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: RCI.B:TSX Rogers Communications Inc.
Time series to forecast n: 22 Nov 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy RCI.B:TSX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Rogers Communications Inc.

  1. The definition of a derivative in this Standard includes contracts that are settled gross by delivery of the underlying item (eg a forward contract to purchase a fixed rate debt instrument). An entity may have a contract to buy or sell a non-financial item that can be settled net in cash or another financial instrument or by exchanging financial instruments (eg a contract to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price at a future date). Such a contract is within the scope of this Standard unless it was entered into and continues to be held for the purpose of delivery of a non-financial item in accordance with the entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements. However, this Standard applies to such contracts for an entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements if the entity makes a designation in accordance with paragraph 2.5 (see paragraphs 2.4–2.7).
  2. An entity's business model is determined at a level that reflects how groups of financial assets are managed together to achieve a particular business objective. The entity's business model does not depend on management's intentions for an individual instrument. Accordingly, this condition is not an instrument-by-instrument approach to classification and should be determined on a higher level of aggregation. However, a single entity may have more than one business model for managing its financial instruments. Consequently, classification need not be determined at the reporting entity level. For example, an entity may hold a portfolio of investments that it manages in order to collect contractual cash flows and another portfolio of investments that it manages in order to trade to realise fair value changes. Similarly, in some circumstances, it may be appropriate to separate a portfolio of financial assets into subportfolios in order to reflect the level at which an entity manages those financial assets. For example, that may be the case if an entity originates or purchases a portfolio of mortgage loans and manages some of the loans with an objective of collecting contractual cash flows and manages the other loans with an objective of selling them.
  3. Because the hedge accounting model is based on a general notion of offset between gains and losses on the hedging instrument and the hedged item, hedge effectiveness is determined not only by the economic relationship between those items (ie the changes in their underlyings) but also by the effect of credit risk on the value of both the hedging instrument and the hedged item. The effect of credit risk means that even if there is an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item, the level of offset might become erratic. This can result from a change in the credit risk of either the hedging instrument or the hedged item that is of such a magnitude that the credit risk dominates the value changes that result from the economic relationship (ie the effect of the changes in the underlyings). A level of magnitude that gives rise to dominance is one that would result in the loss (or gain) from credit risk frustrating the effect of changes in the underlyings on the value of the hedging instrument or the hedged item, even if those changes were significant.
  4. If an entity previously accounted for a derivative liability that is linked to, and must be settled by, delivery of an equity instrument that does not have a quoted price in an active market for an identical instrument (ie a Level 1 input) at cost in accordance with IAS 39, it shall measure that derivative liability at fair value at the date of initial application. Any difference between the previous carrying amount and the fair value shall be recognised in the opening retained earnings of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Rogers Communications Inc. assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the RCI.B:TSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy RCI.B:TSX stock.

Financial State Forecast for RCI.B:TSX Rogers Communications Inc. Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Ba3
Operational Risk 8630
Market Risk4665
Technical Analysis4962
Fundamental Analysis3581
Risk Unsystematic7184

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 562 signals.

References

  1. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  2. P. Milgrom and I. Segal. Envelope theorems for arbitrary choice sets. Econometrica, 70(2):583–601, 2002
  3. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
  4. Candès EJ, Recht B. 2009. Exact matrix completion via convex optimization. Found. Comput. Math. 9:717
  5. Bera, A. M. L. Higgins (1997), "ARCH and bilinearity as competing models for nonlinear dependence," Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 15, 43–50.
  6. Athey S, Bayati M, Doudchenko N, Imbens G, Khosravi K. 2017a. Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models. arXiv:1710.10251 [math.ST]
  7. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for RCI.B:TSX stock?
A: RCI.B:TSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is RCI.B:TSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy RCI.B:TSX Stock.
Q: Is Rogers Communications Inc. stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Rogers Communications Inc. is Buy and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of RCI.B:TSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for RCI.B:TSX is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for RCI.B:TSX stock?
A: The prediction period for RCI.B:TSX is (n+8 weeks)

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