## Summary

In the business sector, it has always been a difficult task to predict the exact daily price of the stock market index; hence, there is a great deal of research being conducted regarding the prediction of the direction of stock price index movement. Many factors such as political events, general economic conditions, and traders' expectations may have an influence on the stock market index. There are numerous research studies that use similar indicators to forecast the direction of the stock market index. ** We evaluate Shanghai Composite Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Beta ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the Shanghai Composite Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Shanghai Composite Index stock.**

## Key Points

- How useful are statistical predictions?
- Market Risk
- How useful are statistical predictions?

## Shanghai Composite Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Shanghai Composite Index Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of Shanghai Composite Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Beta)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Shanghai Composite Index stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## Shanghai Composite Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**Shanghai Composite Index Shanghai Composite Index

**Time series to forecast n: 28 Nov 2022**for (n+16 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Shanghai Composite Index stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Shanghai Composite Index

- When an entity, consistent with its hedge documentation, frequently resets (ie discontinues and restarts) a hedging relationship because both the hedging instrument and the hedged item frequently change (ie the entity uses a dynamic process in which both the hedged items and the hedging instruments used to manage that exposure do not remain the same for long), the entity shall apply the requirement in paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8—that the risk component is separately identifiable—only when it initially designates a hedged item in that hedging relationship. A hedged item that has been assessed at the time of its initial designation in the hedging relationship, whether it was at the time of the hedge inception or subsequently, is not reassessed at any subsequent redesignation in the same hedging relationship.
- An entity's business model is determined at a level that reflects how groups of financial assets are managed together to achieve a particular business objective. The entity's business model does not depend on management's intentions for an individual instrument. Accordingly, this condition is not an instrument-by-instrument approach to classification and should be determined on a higher level of aggregation. However, a single entity may have more than one business model for managing its financial instruments. Consequently, classification need not be determined at the reporting entity level. For example, an entity may hold a portfolio of investments that it manages in order to collect contractual cash flows and another portfolio of investments that it manages in order to trade to realise fair value changes. Similarly, in some circumstances, it may be appropriate to separate a portfolio of financial assets into subportfolios in order to reflect the level at which an entity manages those financial assets. For example, that may be the case if an entity originates or purchases a portfolio of mortgage loans and manages some of the loans with an objective of collecting contractual cash flows and manages the other loans with an objective of selling them.
- One of the defining characteristics of a derivative is that it has an initial net investment that is smaller than would be required for other types of contracts that would be expected to have a similar response to changes in market factors. An option contract meets that definition because the premium is less than the investment that would be required to obtain the underlying financial instrument to which the option is linked. A currency swap that requires an initial exchange of different currencies of equal fair values meets the definition because it has a zero initial net investment.
- For the purpose of applying the requirement in paragraph 6.5.12 in order to determine whether the hedged future cash flows are expected to occur, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows (contractually or non-contractually specified) are based is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Shanghai Composite Index assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Beta ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the Shanghai Composite Index stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Shanghai Composite Index stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for Shanghai Composite Index Shanghai Composite Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B2 | B2 |

Operational Risk | 90 | 45 |

Market Risk | 49 | 37 |

Technical Analysis | 54 | 35 |

Fundamental Analysis | 36 | 71 |

Risk Unsystematic | 43 | 63 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- V. Borkar and R. Jain. Risk-constrained Markov decision processes. IEEE Transaction on Automatic Control, 2014
- J. Filar, D. Krass, and K. Ross. Percentile performance criteria for limiting average Markov decision pro- cesses. IEEE Transaction of Automatic Control, 40(1):2–10, 1995.
- Varian HR. 2014. Big data: new tricks for econometrics. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:3–28
- Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
- S. Devlin, L. Yliniemi, D. Kudenko, and K. Tumer. Potential-based difference rewards for multiagent reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the Thirteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, May 2014
- Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for Shanghai Composite Index stock?A: Shanghai Composite Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Beta

Q: Is Shanghai Composite Index stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Shanghai Composite Index Stock.

Q: Is Shanghai Composite Index stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Shanghai Composite Index is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of Shanghai Composite Index stock?

A: The consensus rating for Shanghai Composite Index is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for Shanghai Composite Index stock?

A: The prediction period for Shanghai Composite Index is (n+16 weeks)