Short/Long Term Stocks: CSX Stock Forecast

Complex networks in stock market and stock price volatility pattern prediction are the important issues in stock price research. Previous studies have used historical information regarding a single stock to predict the future trend of the stock's price, seldom considering comovement among stocks in the same market. In this study, in order to extract the information about relation stocks for prediction, we try to combine the complex network method with machine learning to predict stock price patterns. We evaluate CSX Corporation prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CSX stock.


Keywords: CSX, CSX Corporation, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Nash Equilibria
  2. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
  3. Trust metric by Neural Network

CSX Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Machine Learning refers to a concept in which a machine has been programmed to learn specific patterns from historical data using powerful algorithms and make predictions in future based on the patterns it learnt. Machine learning is a branch of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the term proposed in 1959 by Arthur Samuel who defined it as the ability of computers or machines to learn new rules and concepts from data without being explicitly programmed. We consider CSX Corporation Stock Decision Process with Linear Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of CSX stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Linear Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) i = 1 n s i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of CSX stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

CSX Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: CSX CSX Corporation
Time series to forecast n: 11 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CSX stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for CSX Corporation

  1. Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income changes in the fair value of an investment in an equity instrument that is not held for trading. This election is made on an instrument-by-instrument (ie share-by-share) basis. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity. Dividends on such investments are recognised in profit or loss in accordance with paragraph 5.7.6 unless the dividend clearly represents a recovery of part of the cost of the investment.
  2. If a guarantee provided by an entity to pay for default losses on a transferred asset prevents the transferred asset from being derecognised to the extent of the continuing involvement, the transferred asset at the date of the transfer is measured at the lower of (i) the carrying amount of the asset and (ii) the maximum amount of the consideration received in the transfer that the entity could be required to repay ('the guarantee amount'). The associated liability is initially measured at the guarantee amount plus the fair value of the guarantee (which is normally the consideration received for the guarantee). Subsequently, the initial fair value of the guarantee is recognised in profit or loss when (or as) the obligation is satisfied (in accordance with the principles of IFRS 15) and the carrying value of the asset is reduced by any loss allowance.
  3. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess whether the fair value of a prepayment feature was insignificant in accordance with paragraph B4.1.12(c) on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the exception for prepayment features in paragraph B4.1.12. (See also paragraph 42S of IFRS 7.)
  4. If items are hedged together as a group in a cash flow hedge, they might affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income. The presentation of hedging gains or losses in that statement depends on the group of items

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

CSX Corporation assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Linear Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the CSX stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CSX stock.

Financial State Forecast for CSX CSX Corporation Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B1
Operational Risk 5765
Market Risk4283
Technical Analysis7645
Fundamental Analysis4131
Risk Unsystematic3655

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 865 signals.

References

  1. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
  2. J. G. Schneider, W. Wong, A. W. Moore, and M. A. Riedmiller. Distributed value functions. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 371–378, 1999.
  3. Scott SL. 2010. A modern Bayesian look at the multi-armed bandit. Appl. Stoch. Models Bus. Ind. 26:639–58
  4. Chipman HA, George EI, McCulloch RE. 2010. Bart: Bayesian additive regression trees. Ann. Appl. Stat. 4:266–98
  5. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
  6. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
  7. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for CSX stock?
A: CSX stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Linear Regression
Q: Is CSX stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold CSX Stock.
Q: Is CSX Corporation stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CSX Corporation is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of CSX stock?
A: The consensus rating for CSX is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for CSX stock?
A: The prediction period for CSX is (n+6 month)

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