Short/Long Term Stocks: PATH Stock Forecast

UiPath Research Report

Summary

The stock market prediction has attracted much attention from academia as well as business. Due to the non-linear, volatile and complex nature of the market, it is quite difficult to predict. As the stock markets grow bigger, more investors pay attention to develop a systematic approach to predict the stock market. We evaluate UiPath prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PATH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PATH stock.

Key Points

1. Market Signals
2. Market Risk
3. How can neural networks improve predictions?

PATH Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider UiPath Stock Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of PATH stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int e^x\mathrm{rx}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of PATH stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

PATH Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: PATH UiPath
Time series to forecast n: 18 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PATH stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for UiPath

1. For the purpose of recognising foreign exchange gains and losses under IAS 21, a financial asset measured at fair value through other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 4.1.2A is treated as a monetary item. Accordingly, such a financial asset is treated as an asset measured at amortised cost in the foreign currency. Exchange differences on the amortised cost are recognised in profit or loss and other changes in the carrying amount are recognised in accordance with paragraph 5.7.10.
2. In some circumstances, the renegotiation or modification of the contractual cash flows of a financial asset can lead to the derecognition of the existing financial asset in accordance with this Standard. When the modification of a financial asset results in the derecognition of the existing financial asset and the subsequent recognition of the modified financial asset, the modified asset is considered a 'new' financial asset for the purposes of this Standard.
3. An entity must look through until it can identify the underlying pool of instruments that are creating (instead of passing through) the cash flows. This is the underlying pool of financial instruments.
4. The accounting for the forward element of forward contracts in accordance with paragraph 6.5.16 applies only to the extent that the forward element relates to the hedged item (aligned forward element). The forward element of a forward contract relates to the hedged item if the critical terms of the forward contract (such as the nominal amount, life and underlying) are aligned with the hedged item. Hence, if the critical terms of the forward contract and the hedged item are not fully aligned, an entity shall determine the aligned forward element, ie how much of the forward element included in the forward contract (actual forward element) relates to the hedged item (and therefore should be treated in accordance with paragraph 6.5.16). An entity determines the aligned forward element using the valuation of the forward contract that would have critical terms that perfectly match the hedged item.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

UiPath assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the PATH stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PATH stock.

Financial State Forecast for PATH UiPath Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba3	Ba2
Operational Risk	52	31
Market Risk	59	90
Technical Analysis	83	82
Fundamental Analysis	43	76
Risk Unsystematic	89	58

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 81 out of 100 with 881 signals.

References

1. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
2. Bai J, Ng S. 2017. Principal components and regularized estimation of factor models. arXiv:1708.08137 [stat.ME]
3. Imbens GW, Rubin DB. 2015. Causal Inference in Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
4. A. Tamar, Y. Glassner, and S. Mannor. Policy gradients beyond expectations: Conditional value-at-risk. In AAAI, 2015
5. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
6. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
7. R. Rockafellar and S. Uryasev. Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. Journal of Risk, 2:21–42, 2000.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for PATH stock?
A: PATH stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is PATH stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold PATH Stock.
Q: Is UiPath stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for UiPath is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of PATH stock?
A: The consensus rating for PATH is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for PATH stock?
A: The prediction period for PATH is (n+3 month)

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