Should You Buy Now or Wait? LON:ALTN Stock Forecast

ALTYNGOLD PLC Research Report

Summary

As stock data is characterized by highly noisy and non-stationary, stock price prediction is regarded as a knotty problem. In this paper, we propose new two-stage ensemble models by combining empirical mode decomposition (EMD) (or variational mode decomposition (VMD)), extreme learning machine (ELM) and improved harmony search (IHS) algorithm for stock price prediction, which are respectively named EMD–ELM–IHS and VMD–ELM–IHS. We evaluate ALTYNGOLD PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ALTN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ALTN stock.

Key Points

  1. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  2. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
  3. What are the most successful trading algorithms?

LON:ALTN Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ALTYNGOLD PLC Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:ALTN stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Beta)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:ALTN stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

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LON:ALTN Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:ALTN ALTYNGOLD PLC
Time series to forecast n: 21 Nov 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ALTN stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for ALTYNGOLD PLC

  1. For example, Entity A, whose functional currency is its local currency, has a firm commitment to pay FC150,000 for advertising expenses in nine months' time and a firm commitment to sell finished goods for FC150,000 in 15 months' time. Entity A enters into a foreign currency derivative that settles in nine months' time under which it receives FC100 and pays CU70. Entity A has no other exposures to FC. Entity A does not manage foreign currency risk on a net basis. Hence, Entity A cannot apply hedge accounting for a hedging relationship between the foreign currency derivative and a net position of FC100 (consisting of FC150,000 of the firm purchase commitment—ie advertising services—and FC149,900 (of the FC150,000) of the firm sale commitment) for a nine-month period.
  2. If, at the date of initial application, it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8) for an entity to assess whether the fair value of a prepayment feature was insignificant in accordance with paragraph B4.1.12(c) on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset, an entity shall assess the contractual cash flow characteristics of that financial asset on the basis of the facts and circumstances that existed at the initial recognition of the financial asset without taking into account the exception for prepayment features in paragraph B4.1.12. (See also paragraph 42S of IFRS 7.)
  3. An entity shall apply this Standard for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2018. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity elects to apply this Standard early, it must disclose that fact and apply all of the requirements in this Standard at the same time (but see also paragraphs 7.1.2, 7.2.21 and 7.3.2). It shall also, at the same time, apply the amendments in Appendix C.
  4. To the extent that a transfer of a financial asset does not qualify for derecognition, the transferor's contractual rights or obligations related to the transfer are not accounted for separately as derivatives if recognising both the derivative and either the transferred asset or the liability arising from the transfer would result in recognising the same rights or obligations twice. For example, a call option retained by the transferor may prevent a transfer of financial assets from being accounted for as a sale. In that case, the call option is not separately recognised as a derivative asset.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

ALTYNGOLD PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) with Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ALTN stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ALTN stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:ALTN ALTYNGOLD PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 5661
Market Risk5530
Technical Analysis6649
Fundamental Analysis7234
Risk Unsystematic6276

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 454 signals.

References

  1. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
  2. Athey S, Imbens G, Wager S. 2016a. Efficient inference of average treatment effects in high dimensions via approximate residual balancing. arXiv:1604.07125 [math.ST]
  3. A. Tamar and S. Mannor. Variance adjusted actor critic algorithms. arXiv preprint arXiv:1310.3697, 2013.
  4. Wu X, Kumar V, Quinlan JR, Ghosh J, Yang Q, et al. 2008. Top 10 algorithms in data mining. Knowl. Inform. Syst. 14:1–37
  5. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
  6. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
  7. Abadie A, Cattaneo MD. 2018. Econometric methods for program evaluation. Annu. Rev. Econ. 10:465–503
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:ALTN stock?
A: LON:ALTN stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (DNN Layer) and Beta
Q: Is LON:ALTN stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ALTN Stock.
Q: Is ALTYNGOLD PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ALTYNGOLD PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:ALTN stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:ALTN is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:ALTN stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:ALTN is (n+8 weeks)

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