Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold? (LON:ECEL Stock Forecast)

With technological advancements, big data can be easily generated and collected in many applications. Embedded in these big data are useful information and knowledge that can be discovered by machine learning and data mining models, techniques or algorithms. We evaluate EUROCELL PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ECEL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ECEL stock.


Keywords: LON:ECEL, EUROCELL PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?
  2. Game Theory
  3. Can neural networks predict stock market?

LON:ECEL Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

This paper surveys machine learning techniques for stock market prediction. The prediction of stock markets is regarded as a challenging task of financial time series prediction. We consider EUROCELL PLC Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:ECEL stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:ECEL stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

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How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:ECEL Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:ECEL EUROCELL PLC
Time series to forecast n: 14 Nov 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ECEL stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for EUROCELL PLC

  1. A hedge of a firm commitment (for example, a hedge of the change in fuel price relating to an unrecognised contractual commitment by an electric utility to purchase fuel at a fixed price) is a hedge of an exposure to a change in fair value. Accordingly, such a hedge is a fair value hedge. However, in accordance with paragraph 6.5.4, a hedge of the foreign currency risk of a firm commitment could alternatively be accounted for as a cash flow hedge.
  2. If an entity measures a hybrid contract at fair value in accordance with paragraphs 4.1.2A, 4.1.4 or 4.1.5 but the fair value of the hybrid contract had not been measured in comparative reporting periods, the fair value of the hybrid contract in the comparative reporting periods shall be the sum of the fair values of the components (ie the non-derivative host and the embedded derivative) at the end of each comparative reporting period if the entity restates prior periods (see paragraph 7.2.15).
  3. Paragraph 5.7.5 permits an entity to make an irrevocable election to present in other comprehensive income changes in the fair value of an investment in an equity instrument that is not held for trading. This election is made on an instrument-by-instrument (ie share-by-share) basis. Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity. Dividends on such investments are recognised in profit or loss in accordance with paragraph 5.7.6 unless the dividend clearly represents a recovery of part of the cost of the investment.
  4. For lifetime expected credit losses, an entity shall estimate the risk of a default occurring on the financial instrument during its expected life. 12-month expected credit losses are a portion of the lifetime expected credit losses and represent the lifetime cash shortfalls that will result if a default occurs in the 12 months after the reporting date (or a shorter period if the expected life of a financial instrument is less than 12 months), weighted by the probability of that default occurring. Thus, 12-month expected credit losses are neither the lifetime expected credit losses that an entity will incur on financial instruments that it predicts will default in the next 12 months nor the cash shortfalls that are predicted over the next 12 months.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

EUROCELL PLC assigned short-term B2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ECEL stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ECEL stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:ECEL EUROCELL PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B2Baa2
Operational Risk 3583
Market Risk6678
Technical Analysis4988
Fundamental Analysis8565
Risk Unsystematic3365

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 476 signals.

References

  1. M. Colby, T. Duchow-Pressley, J. J. Chung, and K. Tumer. Local approximation of difference evaluation functions. In Proceedings of the Fifteenth International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Singapore, May 2016
  2. S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009
  3. Scholkopf B, Smola AJ. 2001. Learning with Kernels: Support Vector Machines, Regularization, Optimization, and Beyond. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  4. M. J. Hausknecht and P. Stone. Deep recurrent Q-learning for partially observable MDPs. CoRR, abs/1507.06527, 2015
  5. Keane MP. 2013. Panel data discrete choice models of consumer demand. In The Oxford Handbook of Panel Data, ed. BH Baltagi, pp. 54–102. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press
  6. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
  7. Allen, P. G. (1994), "Economic forecasting in agriculture," International Journal of Forecasting, 10, 81–135.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:ECEL stock?
A: LON:ECEL stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is LON:ECEL stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ECEL Stock.
Q: Is EUROCELL PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for EUROCELL PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B2 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:ECEL stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:ECEL is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:ECEL stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:ECEL is (n+8 weeks)

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