Modelling A.I. in Economics

Trading Signals (LON:VNET Stock Forecast)

Stock market also called as equity market is the aggregation of the sellers and buyers. It is concerned with the domain where the shares of various public listed companies are traded. For predicting the growth of economy, stock market acts as an index. Due to the nonlinear nature, the prediction of the stock market becomes a difficult task. But the application of various machine learning techniques has been becoming a powerful source for the prediction. We evaluate VIANET GROUP PLC prediction models with Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:VNET stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:VNET stock.


Keywords: LON:VNET, VIANET GROUP PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Reaction Function
  2. Trading Interaction
  3. How useful are statistical predictions?

LON:VNET Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

This paper addresses problem of predicting direction of movement of stock and stock price index. The study compares four prediction models, Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM), random forest and naive-Bayes with two approaches for input to these models. We consider VIANET GROUP PLC Stock Decision Process with Ridge Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:VNET stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Multi-Task Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) e x rx

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:VNET stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:VNET Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:VNET VIANET GROUP PLC
Time series to forecast n: 15 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:VNET stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for VIANET GROUP PLC

  1. When an entity designates a financial liability as at fair value through profit or loss, it must determine whether presenting in other comprehensive income the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk would create or enlarge an accounting mismatch in profit or loss. An accounting mismatch would be created or enlarged if presenting the effects of changes in the liability's credit risk in other comprehensive income would result in a greater mismatch in profit or loss than if those amounts were presented in profit or loss
  2. When applying the effective interest method, an entity generally amortises any fees, points paid or received, transaction costs and other premiums or discounts that are included in the calculation of the effective interest rate over the expected life of the financial instrument. However, a shorter period is used if this is the period to which the fees, points paid or received, transaction costs, premiums or discounts relate. This will be the case when the variable to which the fees, points paid or received, transaction costs, premiums or discounts relate is repriced to market rates before the expected maturity of the financial instrument. In such a case, the appropriate amortisation period is the period to the next such repricing date. For example, if a premium or discount on a floating-rate financial instrument reflects the interest that has accrued on that financial instrument since the interest was last paid, or changes in the market rates since the floating interest rate was reset to the market rates, it will be amortised to the next date when the floating interest is reset to market rates. This is because the premium or discount relates to the period to the next interest reset date because, at that date, the variable to which the premium or discount relates (ie interest rates) is reset to the market rates. If, however, the premium or discount results from a change in the credit spread over the floating rate specified in the financial instrument, or other variables that are not reset to the market rates, it is amortised over the expected life of the financial instrument.
  3. The following are examples of when the objective of the entity's business model may be achieved by both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets. This list of examples is not exhaustive. Furthermore, the examples are not intended to describe all the factors that may be relevant to the assessment of the entity's business model nor specify the relative importance of the factors.
  4. For a discontinued hedging relationship, when the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged future cash flows had been based is changed as required by interest rate benchmark reform, for the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.12 in order to determine whether the hedged future cash flows are expected to occur, the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve for that hedging relationship shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows will be based.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

VIANET GROUP PLC assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) with Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:VNET stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:VNET stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:VNET VIANET GROUP PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B2
Operational Risk 8264
Market Risk4261
Technical Analysis5044
Fundamental Analysis3271
Risk Unsystematic5333

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 84 out of 100 with 812 signals.

References

  1. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
  2. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
  3. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
  4. Barkan O. 2016. Bayesian neural word embedding. arXiv:1603.06571 [math.ST]
  5. N. B ̈auerle and A. Mundt. Dynamic mean-risk optimization in a binomial model. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 70(2):219–239, 2009.
  6. Rosenbaum PR, Rubin DB. 1983. The central role of the propensity score in observational studies for causal effects. Biometrika 70:41–55
  7. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:VNET stock?
A: LON:VNET stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Multi-Task Learning (ML) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is LON:VNET stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:VNET Stock.
Q: Is VIANET GROUP PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for VIANET GROUP PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:VNET stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:VNET is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:VNET stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:VNET is (n+6 month)

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