Trading Signals (ZION Stock Forecast) (Forecast)

Zions Bancorporation N.A. Common Stock Research Report

Summary

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. There is a gamut of literature of technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and derive profit from it. Improving the prediction accuracy remains the single most challenge in this area of research. We propose a hybrid approach for stock price movement prediction using machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing. We evaluate Zions Bancorporation N.A. Common Stock prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Polynomial Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ZION stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ZION stock.

Key Points

1. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings
2. Is Target price a good indicator?
3. Operational Risk

ZION Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Zions Bancorporation N.A. Common Stock Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of ZION stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Polynomial Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\overrightarrow{R}=\left(r_1,r_2,r_3\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ZION stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ZION Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ZION Zions Bancorporation N.A. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 25 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ZION stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Zions Bancorporation N.A. Common Stock

1. IFRS 15, issued in May 2014, amended paragraphs 3.1.1, 4.2.1, 5.1.1, 5.2.1, 5.7.6, B3.2.13, B5.7.1, C5 and C42 and deleted paragraph C16 and its related heading. Paragraphs 5.1.3 and 5.7.1A, and a definition to Appendix A, were added. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 15.
2. An entity must look through until it can identify the underlying pool of instruments that are creating (instead of passing through) the cash flows. This is the underlying pool of financial instruments.
3. Expected credit losses reflect an entity's own expectations of credit losses. However, when considering all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort in estimating expected credit losses, an entity should also consider observable market information about the credit risk of the particular financial instrument or similar financial instruments.
4. For the purposes of measuring expected credit losses, the estimate of expected cash shortfalls shall reflect the cash flows expected from collateral and other credit enhancements that are part of the contractual terms and are not recognised separately by the entity. The estimate of expected cash shortfalls on a collateralised financial instrument reflects the amount and timing of cash flows that are expected from foreclosure on the collateral less the costs of obtaining and selling the collateral, irrespective of whether foreclosure is probable (ie the estimate of expected cash flows considers the probability of a foreclosure and the cash flows that would result from it). Consequently, any cash flows that are expected from the realisation of the collateral beyond the contractual maturity of the contract should be included in this analysis. Any collateral obtained as a result of foreclosure is not recognised as an asset that is separate from the collateralised financial instrument unless it meets the relevant recognition criteria for an asset in this or other Standards.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Zions Bancorporation N.A. Common Stock assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Polynomial Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ZION stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ZION stock.

Financial State Forecast for ZION Zions Bancorporation N.A. Common Stock Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	B3	Ba1
Operational Risk	57	87
Market Risk	40	81
Technical Analysis	47	40
Fundamental Analysis	47	76
Risk Unsystematic	62	68

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 638 signals.

References

1. Semenova V, Goldman M, Chernozhukov V, Taddy M. 2018. Orthogonal ML for demand estimation: high dimensional causal inference in dynamic panels. arXiv:1712.09988 [stat.ML]
2. Li L, Chen S, Kleban J, Gupta A. 2014. Counterfactual estimation and optimization of click metrics for search engines: a case study. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on the World Wide Web, pp. 929–34. New York: ACM
3. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
4. A. Shapiro, W. Tekaya, J. da Costa, and M. Soares. Risk neutral and risk averse stochastic dual dynamic programming method. European journal of operational research, 224(2):375–391, 2013
5. Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press
6. A. Y. Ng, D. Harada, and S. J. Russell. Policy invariance under reward transformations: Theory and application to reward shaping. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 278–287, 1999.
7. Belloni A, Chernozhukov V, Hansen C. 2014. High-dimensional methods and inference on structural and treatment effects. J. Econ. Perspect. 28:29–50

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for ZION stock?
A: ZION stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is ZION stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ZION Stock.
Q: Is Zions Bancorporation N.A. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Zions Bancorporation N.A. Common Stock is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term Ba1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ZION stock?
A: The consensus rating for ZION is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ZION stock?
A: The prediction period for ZION is (n+6 month)

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