Modelling A.I. in Economics

TUEM Tuesday Morning Corp. Common Stock (Forecast)

Tuesday Morning Corp. Common Stock Research Report

Summary

The stock market prediction patterns are seen as an important activity and it is more effective. Hence, stock prices will lead to lucrative profits from sound taking decisions. Because of the stagnant and noisy data, stock market-related forecasts are a major challenge for investors. Therefore, forecasting the stock market is a major challenge for investors to use their money to make more profit. Stock market predictions use mathematical strategies and learning tools. We evaluate Tuesday Morning Corp. Common Stock prediction models with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TUEM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold TUEM stock.

Key Points

  1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
  2. Is it better to buy and sell or hold?
  3. Nash Equilibria

TUEM Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Tuesday Morning Corp. Common Stock Decision Process with Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of TUEM stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Paired T-Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of TUEM stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

TUEM Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: TUEM Tuesday Morning Corp. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 01 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold TUEM stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Tuesday Morning Corp. Common Stock

  1. If the contractual cash flows on a financial asset have been renegotiated or otherwise modified, but the financial asset is not derecognised, that financial asset is not automatically considered to have lower credit risk. An entity shall assess whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on the basis of all reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort. This includes historical and forwardlooking information and an assessment of the credit risk over the expected life of the financial asset, which includes information about the circumstances that led to the modification. Evidence that the criteria for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses are no longer met may include a history of up-to-date and timely payment performance against the modified contractual terms. Typically a customer would need to demonstrate consistently good payment behaviour over a period of time before the credit risk is considered to have decreased.
  2. That the transferee is unlikely to sell the transferred asset does not, of itself, mean that the transferor has retained control of the transferred asset. However, if a put option or guarantee constrains the transferee from selling the transferred asset, then the transferor has retained control of the transferred asset. For example, if a put option or guarantee is sufficiently valuable it constrains the transferee from selling the transferred asset because the transferee would, in practice, not sell the transferred asset to a third party without attaching a similar option or other restrictive conditions. Instead, the transferee would hold the transferred asset so as to obtain payments under the guarantee or put option. Under these circumstances the transferor has retained control of the transferred asset.
  3. When measuring a loss allowance for a lease receivable, the cash flows used for determining the expected credit losses should be consistent with the cash flows used in measuring the lease receivable in accordance with IFRS 16 Leases.
  4. Compared to a business model whose objective is to hold financial assets to collect contractual cash flows, this business model will typically involve greater frequency and value of sales. This is because selling financial assets is integral to achieving the business model's objective instead of being only incidental to it. However, there is no threshold for the frequency or value of sales that must occur in this business model because both collecting contractual cash flows and selling financial assets are integral to achieving its objective.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Tuesday Morning Corp. Common Stock assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) with Paired T-Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the TUEM stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold TUEM stock.

Financial State Forecast for TUEM Tuesday Morning Corp. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B1
Operational Risk 5636
Market Risk4340
Technical Analysis3744
Fundamental Analysis4488
Risk Unsystematic5188

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 805 signals.

References

  1. Jacobs B, Donkers B, Fok D. 2014. Product Recommendations Based on Latent Purchase Motivations. Rotterdam, Neth.: ERIM
  2. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
  3. Canova, F. B. E. Hansen (1995), "Are seasonal patterns constant over time? A test for seasonal stability," Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 13, 237–252.
  4. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
  5. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  6. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
  7. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for TUEM stock?
A: TUEM stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Reinforcement Machine Learning (ML) and Paired T-Test
Q: Is TUEM stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold TUEM Stock.
Q: Is Tuesday Morning Corp. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Tuesday Morning Corp. Common Stock is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of TUEM stock?
A: The consensus rating for TUEM is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for TUEM stock?
A: The prediction period for TUEM is (n+1 year)

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