Modelling A.I. in Economics

VRS VERIS LIMITED

VERIS LIMITED Research Report

Summary

Application of machine learning for stock prediction is attracting a lot of attention in recent years. A large amount of research has been conducted in this area and multiple existing results have shown that machine learning methods could be successfully used toward stock predicting using stocks' historical data. Most of these existing approaches have focused on short term prediction using stocks' historical price and technical indicators. We evaluate VERIS LIMITED prediction models with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VRS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy VRS stock.

Key Points

  1. Trading Interaction
  2. Why do we need predictive models?
  3. Trading Signals

VRS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider VERIS LIMITED Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of VRS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Beta)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) R = 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of VRS stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

VRS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: VRS VERIS LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 29 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy VRS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for VERIS LIMITED

  1. The accounting for the time value of options in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15 applies only to the extent that the time value relates to the hedged item (aligned time value). The time value of an option relates to the hedged item if the critical terms of the option (such as the nominal amount, life and underlying) are aligned with the hedged item. Hence, if the critical terms of the option and the hedged item are not fully aligned, an entity shall determine the aligned time value, ie how much of the time value included in the premium (actual time value) relates to the hedged item (and therefore should be treated in accordance with paragraph 6.5.15). An entity determines the aligned time value using the valuation of the option that would have critical terms that perfectly match the hedged item.
  2. Interest Rate Benchmark Reform—Phase 2, which amended IFRS 9, IAS 39, IFRS 7, IFRS 4 and IFRS 16, issued in August 2020, added paragraphs 5.4.5–5.4.9, 6.8.13, Section 6.9 and paragraphs 7.2.43–7.2.46. An entity shall apply these amendments for annual periods beginning on or after 1 January 2021. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies these amendments for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
  3. For a discontinued hedging relationship, when the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged future cash flows had been based is changed as required by interest rate benchmark reform, for the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.12 in order to determine whether the hedged future cash flows are expected to occur, the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve for that hedging relationship shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows will be based.
  4. If an entity prepares interim financial reports in accordance with IAS 34 Interim Financial Reporting the entity need not apply the requirements in this Standard to interim periods prior to the date of initial application if it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

VERIS LIMITED assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) with Beta1,2,3,4 and conclude that the VRS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy VRS stock.

Financial State Forecast for VRS VERIS LIMITED Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba2B1
Operational Risk 7542
Market Risk8954
Technical Analysis4782
Fundamental Analysis8543
Risk Unsystematic5179

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 473 signals.

References

  1. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
  2. Bengio Y, Schwenk H, Senécal JS, Morin F, Gauvain JL. 2006. Neural probabilistic language models. In Innovations in Machine Learning: Theory and Applications, ed. DE Holmes, pp. 137–86. Berlin: Springer
  3. S. Proper and K. Tumer. Modeling difference rewards for multiagent learning (extended abstract). In Proceedings of the Eleventh International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems, Valencia, Spain, June 2012
  4. Vapnik V. 2013. The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory. Berlin: Springer
  5. J. Filar, L. Kallenberg, and H. Lee. Variance-penalized Markov decision processes. Mathematics of Opera- tions Research, 14(1):147–161, 1989
  6. Matzkin RL. 1994. Restrictions of economic theory in nonparametric methods. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 4, ed. R Engle, D McFadden, pp. 2523–58. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  7. Tibshirani R, Hastie T. 1987. Local likelihood estimation. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 82:559–67
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for VRS stock?
A: VRS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (News Feed Sentiment Analysis) and Beta
Q: Is VRS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy VRS Stock.
Q: Is VERIS LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for VERIS LIMITED is Buy and assigned short-term Ba2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of VRS stock?
A: The consensus rating for VRS is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for VRS stock?
A: The prediction period for VRS is (n+6 month)



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