Prediction of stock prices has been an important area of research for a long time. While supporters of the efficient market hypothesis believe that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are formal propositions demonstrating that accurate modeling and designing of appropriate variables may lead to models using which stock prices and stock price movement patterns can be very accurately predicted. We evaluate S&P/ASX 200 Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the S&P/ASX 200 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell S&P/ASX 200 Index stock.

Keywords: S&P/ASX 200 Index, S&P/ASX 200 Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Market Risk
2. How do you pick a stock?
3. What are main components of Markov decision process? ## S&P/ASX 200 Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

How to predict stock price movements based on quantitative market data modeling is an attractive topic. In front of the market news and stock prices that are commonly believed as two important market data sources, how to extract and exploit the hidden information within the raw data and make both accurate and fast predictions simultaneously becomes a challenging problem. In this paper, we present the design and architecture of our trading signal mining platform that employs extreme learning machine (ELM) to make stock price prediction based on those two data sources concurrently. We consider S&P/ASX 200 Index Stock Decision Process with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test where A is the set of discrete actions of S&P/ASX 200 Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of S&P/ASX 200 Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## S&P/ASX 200 Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: S&P/ASX 200 Index S&P/ASX 200 Index
Time series to forecast n: 09 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell S&P/ASX 200 Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for S&P/ASX 200 Index

1. The definition of a derivative refers to non-financial variables that are not specific to a party to the contract. These include an index of earthquake losses in a particular region and an index of temperatures in a particular city. Non-financial variables specific to a party to the contract include the occurrence or non-occurrence of a fire that damages or destroys an asset of a party to the contract. A change in the fair value of a non-financial asset is specific to the owner if the fair value reflects not only changes in market prices for such assets (a financial variable) but also the condition of the specific non-financial asset held (a non-financial variable). For example, if a guarantee of the residual value of a specific car exposes the guarantor to the risk of changes in the car's physical condition, the change in that residual value is specific to the owner of the car.
2. If an entity has applied paragraph 7.2.6 then at the date of initial application the entity shall recognise any difference between the fair value of the entire hybrid contract at the date of initial application and the sum of the fair values of the components of the hybrid contract at the date of initial application in the opening retained earnings (or other component of equity, as appropriate) of the reporting period that includes the date of initial application.
3. When measuring hedge ineffectiveness, an entity shall consider the time value of money. Consequently, the entity determines the value of the hedged item on a present value basis and therefore the change in the value of the hedged item also includes the effect of the time value of money.
4. As with all fair value measurements, an entity's measurement method for determining the portion of the change in the liability's fair value that is attributable to changes in its credit risk must make maximum use of relevant observable inputs and minimum use of unobservable inputs.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

S&P/ASX 200 Index assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the S&P/ASX 200 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell S&P/ASX 200 Index stock.

### Financial State Forecast for S&P/ASX 200 Index S&P/ASX 200 Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Baa2B1
Operational Risk 8733
Market Risk4531
Technical Analysis5984
Fundamental Analysis8987
Risk Unsystematic8256

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 621 signals.

## References

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2. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
3. F. A. Oliehoek and C. Amato. A Concise Introduction to Decentralized POMDPs. SpringerBriefs in Intelligent Systems. Springer, 2016
4. Bottou L. 1998. Online learning and stochastic approximations. In On-Line Learning in Neural Networks, ed. D Saad, pp. 9–42. New York: ACM
5. Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM
6. Hartigan JA, Wong MA. 1979. Algorithm as 136: a k-means clustering algorithm. J. R. Stat. Soc. Ser. C 28:100–8
7. Dietterich TG. 2000. Ensemble methods in machine learning. In Multiple Classifier Systems: First International Workshop, Cagliari, Italy, June 21–23, pp. 1–15. Berlin: Springer
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for S&P/ASX 200 Index stock?
A: S&P/ASX 200 Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is S&P/ASX 200 Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell S&P/ASX 200 Index Stock.
Q: Is S&P/ASX 200 Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for S&P/ASX 200 Index is Sell and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of S&P/ASX 200 Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for S&P/ASX 200 Index is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for S&P/ASX 200 Index stock?
A: The prediction period for S&P/ASX 200 Index is (n+3 month)