Modelling A.I. in Economics

What are the most successful trading algorithms? (Dow Jones New Zealand Index Stock Forecast)

The research reported in the paper focuses on the stock market prediction problem, the main aim being the development of a methodology to forecast the stock closing price. The methodology is based on some novel variable selection methods and an analysis of neural network and support vector machines based prediction models. Also, a hybrid approach which combines the use of the variables derived from technical and fundamental analysis of stock market indicators in order to improve prediction results of the proposed approaches is reported in this paper. We evaluate Dow Jones New Zealand Index prediction models with Transfer Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock.


Keywords: Dow Jones New Zealand Index, Dow Jones New Zealand Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. What is a prediction confidence?
  2. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?
  3. How do you decide buy or sell a stock?

Dow Jones New Zealand Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock prediction is a very hot topic in our life. However, in the early time, because of some reasons and the limitation of the device, only a few people had the access to the study. Thanks to the rapid development of science and technology, in recent years more and more people are devoted to the study of the prediction and it becomes easier and easier for us to make stock prediction by using different ways now, including machine learning, deep learning and so on. We consider Dow Jones New Zealand Index Stock Decision Process with Multiple Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transfer Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

Dow Jones New Zealand Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: Dow Jones New Zealand Index Dow Jones New Zealand Index
Time series to forecast n: 06 Nov 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Dow Jones New Zealand Index

  1. Paragraph 5.5.4 requires that lifetime expected credit losses are recognised on all financial instruments for which there has been significant increases in credit risk since initial recognition. In order to meet this objective, if an entity is not able to group financial instruments for which the credit risk is considered to have increased significantly since initial recognition based on shared credit risk characteristics, the entity should recognise lifetime expected credit losses on a portion of the financial assets for which credit risk is deemed to have increased significantly. The aggregation of financial instruments to assess whether there are changes in credit risk on a collective basis may change over time as new information becomes available on groups of, or individual, financial instruments.
  2. The change in the value of the hedged item determined using a hypothetical derivative may also be used for the purpose of assessing whether a hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements.
  3. To the extent that a transfer of a financial asset does not qualify for derecognition, the transferee does not recognise the transferred asset as its asset. The transferee derecognises the cash or other consideration paid and recognises a receivable from the transferor. If the transferor has both a right and an obligation to reacquire control of the entire transferred asset for a fixed amount (such as under a repurchase agreement), the transferee may measure its receivable at amortised cost if it meets the criteria in paragraph 4.1.2.
  4. If the underlyings are not the same but are economically related, there can be situations in which the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item move in the same direction, for example, because the price differential between the two related underlyings changes while the underlyings themselves do not move significantly. That is still consistent with an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item if the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are still expected to typically move in the opposite direction when the underlyings move.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Dow Jones New Zealand Index assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for Dow Jones New Zealand Index Dow Jones New Zealand Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1B3
Operational Risk 7256
Market Risk7531
Technical Analysis5446
Fundamental Analysis6644
Risk Unsystematic8747

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 503 signals.

References

  1. H. Khalil and J. Grizzle. Nonlinear systems, volume 3. Prentice hall Upper Saddle River, 2002.
  2. Y. Le Tallec. Robust, risk-sensitive, and data-driven control of Markov decision processes. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007.
  3. K. Boda and J. Filar. Time consistent dynamic risk measures. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 63(1):169–186, 2006
  4. V. Borkar. Stochastic approximation: a dynamical systems viewpoint. Cambridge University Press, 2008
  5. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
  6. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  7. Babula, R. A. (1988), "Contemporaneous correlation and modeling Canada's imports of U.S. crops," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 41, 33–38.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock?
A: Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transfer Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones New Zealand Index Stock.
Q: Is Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Dow Jones New Zealand Index is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term B3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for Dow Jones New Zealand Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for Dow Jones New Zealand Index stock?
A: The prediction period for Dow Jones New Zealand Index is (n+4 weeks)

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