Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Common Shares Research Report

## Summary

Time series forecasting has been widely used to determine the future prices of stock, and the analysis and modeling of finance time series importantly guide investors' decisions and trades. In addition, in a dynamic environment such as the stock market, the nonlinearity of the time series is pronounced, immediately affecting the efficacy of stock price forecasts. Thus, this paper proposes an intelligent time series prediction system that uses sliding-window metaheuristic optimization for the purpose of predicting the stock prices. We evaluate Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Common Shares prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SHO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SHO stock.

## Key Points

1. Game Theory
2. Can stock prices be predicted?
3. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?

## SHO Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Common Shares Stock Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of SHO stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and Î³ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $∑ i = 1 n r i$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of SHO stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

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## SHO Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: SHO Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Common Shares
Time series to forecast n: 25 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SHO stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Common Shares

1. An entity shall amend a hedging relationship as required in paragraph 6.9.1 by the end of the reporting period during which a change required by interest rate benchmark reform is made to the hedged risk, hedged item or hedging instrument. For the avoidance of doubt, such an amendment to the formal designation of a hedging relationship constitutes neither the discontinuation of the hedging relationship nor the designation of a new hedging relationship.
2. For purchased or originated credit-impaired financial assets, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the credit-adjusted effective interest rate determined at initial recognition.
3. For the purpose of applying the requirements in paragraphs 6.4.1(c)(i) and B6.4.4–B6.4.6, an entity shall assume that the interest rate benchmark on which the hedged cash flows and/or the hedged risk (contractually or noncontractually specified) are based, or the interest rate benchmark on which the cash flows of the hedging instrument are based, is not altered as a result of interest rate benchmark reform.
4. In cases such as those described in the preceding paragraph, to designate, at initial recognition, the financial assets and financial liabilities not otherwise so measured as at fair value through profit or loss may eliminate or significantly reduce the measurement or recognition inconsistency and produce more relevant information. For practical purposes, the entity need not enter into all of the assets and liabilities giving rise to the measurement or recognition inconsistency at exactly the same time. A reasonable delay is permitted provided that each transaction is designated as at fair value through profit or loss at its initial recognition and, at that time, any remaining transactions are expected to occur.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Common Shares assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the SHO stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SHO stock.

### Financial State Forecast for SHO Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Common Shares Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B1
Operational Risk 5757
Market Risk6753
Technical Analysis7187
Fundamental Analysis3854
Risk Unsystematic8743

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 75 out of 100 with 858 signals.

## References

1. Chamberlain G. 2000. Econometrics and decision theory. J. Econom. 95:255–83
2. Bengio Y, Ducharme R, Vincent P, Janvin C. 2003. A neural probabilistic language model. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 3:1137–55
3. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Reinforcement Learning. The MIT Press, 1998
4. Hoerl AE, Kennard RW. 1970. Ridge regression: biased estimation for nonorthogonal problems. Technometrics 12:55–67
5. M. Babes, E. M. de Cote, and M. L. Littman. Social reward shaping in the prisoner's dilemma. In 7th International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2008), Estoril, Portugal, May 12-16, 2008, Volume 3, pages 1389–1392, 2008.
6. E. Altman. Constrained Markov decision processes, volume 7. CRC Press, 1999
7. K. Tumer and D. Wolpert. A survey of collectives. In K. Tumer and D. Wolpert, editors, Collectives and the Design of Complex Systems, pages 1–42. Springer, 2004.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for SHO stock?
A: SHO stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is SHO stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold SHO Stock.
Q: Is Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Common Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Common Shares is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of SHO stock?
A: The consensus rating for SHO is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for SHO stock?
A: The prediction period for SHO is (n+6 month)

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