Stock market is a promising financial investment that can generate great wealth. However, the volatile nature of the stock market makes it a very high risk investment. Thus, a lot of researchers have contributed their efforts to forecast the stock market pricing and average movement. Researchers have used various methods in computer science and economics in their quests to gain a piece of this volatile information and make great fortune out of the stock market investment. This paper investigates various techniques for the stock market prediction using artificial neural network (ANN). We evaluate ENQUEST PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ENQ stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ENQ stock.

Keywords: LON:ENQ, ENQUEST PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

## Key Points

1. Market Signals
2. How useful are statistical predictions?
3. What is prediction in deep learning?

## LON:ENQ Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Nowadays, the stock market's prediction is a topic that attracted researchers in the world. Stock market prediction is a process that requires a comprehensive understanding of the data stock movement and analysis it accurately. Therefore, it needs intelligent methods to deal with this task to ensure that the prediction is as correct as possible, which will return profitable benefits to investors. The main goal of this article is the employment of effective machine learning techniques to build a strong model for stock market prediction. We consider ENQUEST PLC Stock Decision Process with Pearson Correlation where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:ENQ stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Pearson Correlation)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\stackrel{\to }{R}=\left({r}_{1},{r}_{2},{r}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:ENQ stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## LON:ENQ Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:ENQ ENQUEST PLC
Time series to forecast n: 12 Nov 2022 for (n+6 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ENQ stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for ENQUEST PLC

1. Expected credit losses are a probability-weighted estimate of credit losses (ie the present value of all cash shortfalls) over the expected life of the financial instrument. A cash shortfall is the difference between the cash flows that are due to an entity in accordance with the contract and the cash flows that the entity expects to receive. Because expected credit losses consider the amount and timing of payments, a credit loss arises even if the entity expects to be paid in full but later than when contractually due.
2. An entity can also designate only changes in the cash flows or fair value of a hedged item above or below a specified price or other variable (a 'one-sided risk'). The intrinsic value of a purchased option hedging instrument (assuming that it has the same principal terms as the designated risk), but not its time value, reflects a one-sided risk in a hedged item. For example, an entity can designate the variability of future cash flow outcomes resulting from a price increase of a forecast commodity purchase. In such a situation, the entity designates only cash flow losses that result from an increase in the price above the specified level. The hedged risk does not include the time value of a purchased option, because the time value is not a component of the forecast transaction that affects profit or loss.
3. IFRS 17, issued in May 2017, amended paragraphs 2.1, B2.1, B2.4, B2.5 and B4.1.30, and added paragraph 3.3.5. Amendments to IFRS 17, issued in June 2020, further amended paragraph 2.1 and added paragraphs 7.2.36‒7.2.42. An entity shall apply those amendments when it applies IFRS 17.
4. Financial assets that are held within a business model whose objective is to hold assets in order to collect contractual cash flows are managed to realise cash flows by collecting contractual payments over the life of the instrument. That is, the entity manages the assets held within the portfolio to collect those particular contractual cash flows (instead of managing the overall return on the portfolio by both holding and selling assets). In determining whether cash flows are going to be realised by collecting the financial assets' contractual cash flows, it is necessary to consider the frequency, value and timing of sales in prior periods, the reasons for those sales and expectations about future sales activity. However sales in themselves do not determine the business model and therefore cannot be considered in isolation. Instead, information about past sales and expectations about future sales provide evidence related to how the entity's stated objective for managing the financial assets is achieved and, specifically, how cash flows are realised. An entity must consider information about past sales within the context of the reasons for those sales and the conditions that existed at that time as compared to current conditions.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

ENQUEST PLC assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Pearson Correlation1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:ENQ stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ENQ stock.

### Financial State Forecast for LON:ENQ ENQUEST PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B1
Operational Risk 4949
Market Risk5269
Technical Analysis8335
Fundamental Analysis4082
Risk Unsystematic7953

### Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 73 out of 100 with 550 signals.

## References

1. Thompson WR. 1933. On the likelihood that one unknown probability exceeds another in view of the evidence of two samples. Biometrika 25:285–94
2. Bottomley, P. R. Fildes (1998), "The role of prices in models of innovation diffusion," Journal of Forecasting, 17, 539–555.
3. Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
4. E. Altman, K. Avrachenkov, and R. N ́u ̃nez-Queija. Perturbation analysis for denumerable Markov chains with application to queueing models. Advances in Applied Probability, pages 839–853, 2004
5. Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
6. Athey S, Tibshirani J, Wager S. 2016b. Generalized random forests. arXiv:1610.01271 [stat.ME]
7. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:ENQ stock?
A: LON:ENQ stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Pearson Correlation
Q: Is LON:ENQ stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold LON:ENQ Stock.
Q: Is ENQUEST PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ENQUEST PLC is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:ENQ stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:ENQ is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:ENQ stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:ENQ is (n+6 month)