Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) is a sub type of neural networks that use feedback connections. Several types of RNN models are used in predicting financial time series. This study was conducted to develop models to predict daily stock prices based on Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) Approach and to measure the accuracy of the models developed and identify the shortcomings of the models if present. ** We evaluate US Small Cap 2000 Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the US Small Cap 2000 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold US Small Cap 2000 Index stock.**

**US Small Cap 2000 Index, US Small Cap 2000 Index, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.**

*Keywords:*## Key Points

- Market Signals
- What are the most successful trading algorithms?
- Nash Equilibria

## US Small Cap 2000 Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

In recent years there has been a significant growth of interest in the incorporation of historical series of variables related to stock prediction into mathematical models or computational algorithms in order to generate predictions or indications about expected price movements. We consider US Small Cap 2000 Index Stock Decision Process with Stepwise Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of US Small Cap 2000 Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Stepwise Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({s}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of US Small Cap 2000 Index stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

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How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## US Small Cap 2000 Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**US Small Cap 2000 Index US Small Cap 2000 Index

**Time series to forecast n: 07 Nov 2022**for (n+16 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold US Small Cap 2000 Index stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for US Small Cap 2000 Index

- A regular way purchase or sale gives rise to a fixed price commitment between trade date and settlement date that meets the definition of a derivative. However, because of the short duration of the commitment it is not recognised as a derivative financial instrument. Instead, this Standard provides for special accounting for such regular way contracts (see paragraphs 3.1.2 and B3.1.3–B3.1.6).
- An entity shall assess separately whether each subgroup meets the requirements in paragraph 6.6.1 to be an eligible hedged item. If any subgroup fails to meet the requirements in paragraph 6.6.1, the entity shall discontinue hedge accounting prospectively for the hedging relationship in its entirety. An entity also shall apply the requirements in paragraphs 6.5.8 and 6.5.11 to account for ineffectiveness related to the hedging relationship in its entirety.
- Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020, issued in May 2020, added paragraphs 7.2.35 and B3.3.6A and amended paragraph B3.3.6. An entity shall apply that amendment for annual reporting periods beginning on or after 1 January 2022. Earlier application is permitted. If an entity applies the amendment for an earlier period, it shall disclose that fact.
- If the group of items does not have any offsetting risk positions (for example, a group of foreign currency expenses that affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income that are hedged for foreign currency risk) then the reclassified hedging instrument gains or losses shall be apportioned to the line items affected by the hedged items. This apportionment shall be done on a systematic and rational basis and shall not result in the grossing up of the net gains or losses arising from a single hedging instrument.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

US Small Cap 2000 Index assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Stepwise Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the US Small Cap 2000 Index stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold US Small Cap 2000 Index stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for US Small Cap 2000 Index US Small Cap 2000 Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | Ba3 | B2 |

Operational Risk | 64 | 43 |

Market Risk | 51 | 56 |

Technical Analysis | 88 | 53 |

Fundamental Analysis | 87 | 46 |

Risk Unsystematic | 32 | 72 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

- Burkov A. 2019. The Hundred-Page Machine Learning Book. Quebec City, Can.: Andriy Burkov
- Bastani H, Bayati M. 2015. Online decision-making with high-dimensional covariates. Work. Pap., Univ. Penn./ Stanford Grad. School Bus., Philadelphia/Stanford, CA
- Wooldridge JM. 2010. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
- H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
- Holland PW. 1986. Statistics and causal inference. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 81:945–60
- Athey S, Wager S. 2017. Efficient policy learning. arXiv:1702.02896 [math.ST]
- Efron B, Hastie T. 2016. Computer Age Statistical Inference, Vol. 5. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Univ. Press

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for US Small Cap 2000 Index stock?A: US Small Cap 2000 Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Stepwise Regression

Q: Is US Small Cap 2000 Index stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold US Small Cap 2000 Index Stock.

Q: Is US Small Cap 2000 Index stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for US Small Cap 2000 Index is Hold and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of US Small Cap 2000 Index stock?

A: The consensus rating for US Small Cap 2000 Index is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for US Small Cap 2000 Index stock?

A: The prediction period for US Small Cap 2000 Index is (n+16 weeks)

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