When should you buy or sell a stock? (Dow Jones Shanghai Index Stock Forecast)

Dow Jones Shanghai Index Research Report

Summary

Sentiment Analysis is new way of machine learning to extract opinion orientation (positive, negative, neutral) from a text segment written for any product, organization, person or any other entity. Sentiment Analysis can be used to predict the mood of people that have impact on stock prices, therefore it can help in prediction of actual stock movement. We evaluate Dow Jones Shanghai Index prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock.

Key Points

  1. Decision Making
  2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  3. Understanding Buy, Sell, and Hold Ratings

Dow Jones Shanghai Index Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Dow Jones Shanghai Index Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

Dow Jones Shanghai Index Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: Dow Jones Shanghai Index Dow Jones Shanghai Index
Time series to forecast n: 20 Nov 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Dow Jones Shanghai Index

  1. For the purpose of applying paragraph 6.5.11, at the point when an entity amends the description of a hedged item as required in paragraph 6.9.1(b), the amount accumulated in the cash flow hedge reserve shall be deemed to be based on the alternative benchmark rate on which the hedged future cash flows are determined.
  2. When an entity separates the foreign currency basis spread from a financial instrument and excludes it from the designation of that financial instrument as the hedging instrument (see paragraph 6.2.4(b)), the application guidance in paragraphs B6.5.34–B6.5.38 applies to the foreign currency basis spread in the same manner as it is applied to the forward element of a forward contract.
  3. If an entity originates a loan that bears an off-market interest rate (eg 5 per cent when the market rate for similar loans is 8 per cent), and receives an upfront fee as compensation, the entity recognises the loan at its fair value, ie net of the fee it receives.
  4. At the date of initial application, an entity shall assess whether a financial asset meets the condition in paragraphs 4.1.2(a) or 4.1.2A(a) on the basis of the facts and circumstances that exist at that date. The resulting classification shall be applied retrospectively irrespective of the entity's business model in prior reporting periods.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Dow Jones Shanghai Index assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock.

Financial State Forecast for Dow Jones Shanghai Index Dow Jones Shanghai Index Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B3B1
Operational Risk 3189
Market Risk3331
Technical Analysis6279
Fundamental Analysis3948
Risk Unsystematic7740

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 838 signals.

References

  1. Clements, M. P. D. F. Hendry (1996), "Intercept corrections and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11, 475–494.
  2. J. G. Schneider, W. Wong, A. W. Moore, and M. A. Riedmiller. Distributed value functions. In Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 1999), Bled, Slovenia, June 27 - 30, 1999, pages 371–378, 1999.
  3. Vilnis L, McCallum A. 2015. Word representations via Gaussian embedding. arXiv:1412.6623 [cs.CL]
  4. Zeileis A, Hothorn T, Hornik K. 2008. Model-based recursive partitioning. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 17:492–514 Zhou Z, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Offline multi-action policy learning: generalization and optimization. arXiv:1810.04778 [stat.ML]
  5. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
  6. Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
  7. Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock?
A: Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test
Q: Is Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold Dow Jones Shanghai Index Stock.
Q: Is Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Dow Jones Shanghai Index is Hold and assigned short-term B3 & long-term B1 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock?
A: The consensus rating for Dow Jones Shanghai Index is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for Dow Jones Shanghai Index stock?
A: The prediction period for Dow Jones Shanghai Index is (n+3 month)

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