When should you buy or sell a stock? (LON:LMS Stock Forecast)

As part of this research, different techniques have been studied for data extraction and analysis. After having reviewed the work related to the initial idea of the research, it is shown the development carried out, together with the data extraction and the machine learning algorithms for prediction used. The calculation of technical analysis metrics is also included. The development of a visualization platform has been proposed for high-level interaction between the user and the recommendation system. We evaluate LMS CAPITAL PLC prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:LMS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:LMS stock.


Keywords: LON:LMS, LMS CAPITAL PLC, stock forecast, machine learning based prediction, risk rating, buy-sell behaviour, stock analysis, target price analysis, options and futures.

Key Points

  1. Fundemental Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
  2. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
  3. Trading Signals

LON:LMS Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

Stock prediction with data mining techniques is one of the most important issues in finance being investigated by researchers across the globe. Data mining techniques can be used extensively in the financial markets to help investors make qualitative decision. One of the techniques is artificial neural network (ANN). However, in the application of ANN for predicting the financial market the use of technical analysis variables for stock prediction is predominant. In this paper, we present a hybridized approach which combines the use of the variables of technical and fundamental analysis of stock market indicators for prediction of future price of stock in order to improve on the existing approaches. We consider LMS CAPITAL PLC Stock Decision Process with Ridge Regression where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:LMS stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Ridge Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:LMS stock

j:Nash equilibria

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:LMS Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)


Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:LMS LMS CAPITAL PLC
Time series to forecast n: 13 Nov 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:LMS stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for LMS CAPITAL PLC

  1. When applying the effective interest method, an entity generally amortises any fees, points paid or received, transaction costs and other premiums or discounts that are included in the calculation of the effective interest rate over the expected life of the financial instrument. However, a shorter period is used if this is the period to which the fees, points paid or received, transaction costs, premiums or discounts relate. This will be the case when the variable to which the fees, points paid or received, transaction costs, premiums or discounts relate is repriced to market rates before the expected maturity of the financial instrument. In such a case, the appropriate amortisation period is the period to the next such repricing date. For example, if a premium or discount on a floating-rate financial instrument reflects the interest that has accrued on that financial instrument since the interest was last paid, or changes in the market rates since the floating interest rate was reset to the market rates, it will be amortised to the next date when the floating interest is reset to market rates. This is because the premium or discount relates to the period to the next interest reset date because, at that date, the variable to which the premium or discount relates (ie interest rates) is reset to the market rates. If, however, the premium or discount results from a change in the credit spread over the floating rate specified in the financial instrument, or other variables that are not reset to the market rates, it is amortised over the expected life of the financial instrument.
  2. In the reporting period that includes the date of initial application of these amendments, an entity is not required to present the quantitative information required by paragraph 28(f) of IAS 8.
  3. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 at the same time it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.1–7.2.28 instead of paragraphs 7.2.38–7.2.42.
  4. For loan commitments, an entity considers changes in the risk of a default occurring on the loan to which a loan commitment relates. For financial guarantee contracts, an entity considers the changes in the risk that the specified debtor will default on the contract.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

LMS CAPITAL PLC assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Ridge Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:LMS stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:LMS stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:LMS LMS CAPITAL PLC Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3Ba3
Operational Risk 6380
Market Risk6290
Technical Analysis7736
Fundamental Analysis7479
Risk Unsystematic5634

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 83 out of 100 with 568 signals.

References

  1. Greene WH. 2000. Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, N J: Prentice Hall. 4th ed.
  2. Athey S, Imbens G. 2016. Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects. PNAS 113:7353–60
  3. Bessler, D. A. S. W. Fuller (1993), "Cointegration between U.S. wheat markets," Journal of Regional Science, 33, 481–501.
  4. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
  5. Bamler R, Mandt S. 2017. Dynamic word embeddings via skip-gram filtering. In Proceedings of the 34th Inter- national Conference on Machine Learning, pp. 380–89. La Jolla, CA: Int. Mach. Learn. Soc.
  6. Hartford J, Lewis G, Taddy M. 2016. Counterfactual prediction with deep instrumental variables networks. arXiv:1612.09596 [stat.AP]
  7. S. Bhatnagar, R. Sutton, M. Ghavamzadeh, and M. Lee. Natural actor-critic algorithms. Automatica, 45(11): 2471–2482, 2009
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for LON:LMS stock?
A: LON:LMS stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Ridge Regression
Q: Is LON:LMS stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy LON:LMS Stock.
Q: Is LMS CAPITAL PLC stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for LMS CAPITAL PLC is Buy and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term Ba3 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:LMS stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:LMS is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:LMS stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:LMS is (n+4 weeks)

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