When should you buy or sell a stock? (LON:CIC Stock Forecast)

CONYGAR INVESTMENT COMPANY PLC (THE) Research Report

Summary

The search for models to predict the prices of financial markets is still a highly researched topic, despite major related challenges. The prices of financial assets are non-linear, dynamic, and chaotic; thus, they are financial time series that are difficult to predict. Among the latest techniques, machine learning models are some of the most researched, given their capabilities for recognizing complex patterns in various applications. We evaluate CONYGAR INVESTMENT COMPANY PLC (THE) prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:CIC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:CIC stock.

Key Points

1. Technical Analysis with Algorithmic Trading
2. Stock Rating
3. What is a prediction confidence?

LON:CIC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider CONYGAR INVESTMENT COMPANY PLC (THE) Stock Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of LON:CIC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(r_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of LON:CIC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

LON:CIC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: LON:CIC CONYGAR INVESTMENT COMPANY PLC (THE)
Time series to forecast n: 22 Nov 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:CIC stock.

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for CONYGAR INVESTMENT COMPANY PLC (THE)

1. An entity that first applies IFRS 17 as amended in June 2020 at the same time it first applies this Standard shall apply paragraphs 7.2.1–7.2.28 instead of paragraphs 7.2.38–7.2.42.
2. To the extent that a transfer of a financial asset does not qualify for derecognition, the transferee does not recognise the transferred asset as its asset. The transferee derecognises the cash or other consideration paid and recognises a receivable from the transferor. If the transferor has both a right and an obligation to reacquire control of the entire transferred asset for a fixed amount (such as under a repurchase agreement), the transferee may measure its receivable at amortised cost if it meets the criteria in paragraph 4.1.2.
3. If a collar, in the form of a purchased call and written put, prevents a transferred asset from being derecognised and the entity measures the asset at fair value, it continues to measure the asset at fair value. The associated liability is measured at (i) the sum of the call exercise price and fair value of the put option less the time value of the call option, if the call option is in or at the money, or (ii) the sum of the fair value of the asset and the fair value of the put option less the time value of the call option if the call option is out of the money. The adjustment to the associated liability ensures that the net carrying amount of the asset and the associated liability is the fair value of the options held and written by the entity. For example, assume an entity transfers a financial asset that is measured at fair value while simultaneously purchasing a call with an exercise price of CU120 and writing a put with an exercise price of CU80. Assume also that the fair value of the asset is CU100 at the date of the transfer. The time value of the put and call are CU1 and CU5 respectively. In this case, the entity recognises an asset of CU100 (the fair value of the asset) and a liability of CU96 [(CU100 + CU1) – CU5]. This gives a net asset value of CU4, which is the fair value of the options held and written by the entity.
4. An alternative benchmark rate designated as a non-contractually specified risk component that is not separately identifiable (see paragraphs 6.3.7(a) and B6.3.8) at the date it is designated shall be deemed to have met that requirement at that date, if, and only if, the entity reasonably expects the alternative benchmark rate will be separately identifiable within 24 months. The 24-month period applies to each alternative benchmark rate separately and starts from the date the entity designates the alternative benchmark rate as a non-contractually specified risk component for the first time (ie the 24- month period applies on a rate-by-rate basis).

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

CONYGAR INVESTMENT COMPANY PLC (THE) assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) with Lasso Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the LON:CIC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:CIC stock.

Financial State Forecast for LON:CIC CONYGAR INVESTMENT COMPANY PLC (THE) Stock Options & Futures

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Baa2	B2
Operational Risk	54	59
Market Risk	87	31
Technical Analysis	90	62
Fundamental Analysis	88	35
Risk Unsystematic	77	56

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 93 out of 100 with 698 signals.

References

1. Abadie A, Diamond A, Hainmueller J. 2010. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimat- ing the effect of California's tobacco control program. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 105:493–505
2. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
3. Kitagawa T, Tetenov A. 2015. Who should be treated? Empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice. Tech. Rep., Cent. Microdata Methods Pract., Inst. Fiscal Stud., London
4. Mazumder R, Hastie T, Tibshirani R. 2010. Spectral regularization algorithms for learning large incomplete matrices. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 11:2287–322
5. Künzel S, Sekhon J, Bickel P, Yu B. 2017. Meta-learners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning. arXiv:1706.03461 [math.ST]
6. D. White. Mean, variance, and probabilistic criteria in finite Markov decision processes: A review. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 56(1):1–29, 1988.
7. Hastie T, Tibshirani R, Tibshirani RJ. 2017. Extended comparisons of best subset selection, forward stepwise selection, and the lasso. arXiv:1707.08692 [stat.ME]

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for LON:CIC stock?
A: LON:CIC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Social Media Sentiment Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is LON:CIC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell LON:CIC Stock.
Q: Is CONYGAR INVESTMENT COMPANY PLC (THE) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for CONYGAR INVESTMENT COMPANY PLC (THE) is Sell and assigned short-term Baa2 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of LON:CIC stock?
A: The consensus rating for LON:CIC is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for LON:CIC stock?
A: The prediction period for LON:CIC is (n+8 weeks)

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