AAIC Arlington Asset Investment Corp Class A (new)

Outlook: Arlington Asset Investment Corp Class A (new) assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 21 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)

Abstract

Stock market forecasting is considered to be a challenging topic among time series forecasting. This study proposes a novel two-stage ensemble machine learning model named SVR-ENANFIS for stock price prediction by combining features of support vector regression (SVR) and ensemble adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ENANFIS).(Kim, S., Ku, S., Chang, W. and Song, J.W., 2020. Predicting the direction of US stock prices using effective transfer entropy and machine learning techniques. IEEE Access, 8, pp.111660-111682.) We evaluate Arlington Asset Investment Corp Class A (new) prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AAIC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

1. Market Signals
2. Dominated Move
3. How accurate is machine learning in stock market?

AAIC Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Arlington Asset Investment Corp Class A (new) Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of AAIC stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^1,2,3,4

F(Logistic Regression)^5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& p_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & p_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{j1}& p_{j2}& \dots & p_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{k1}& p_{k2}& \dots & p_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ p_{n1}& p_{n2}& \dots & p_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+3 month) $\sum _{i=1}^n\left(a_i\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AAIC stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AAIC Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+3 month)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AAIC Arlington Asset Investment Corp Class A (new)
Time series to forecast n: 21 Dec 2022 for (n+3 month)

According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Arlington Asset Investment Corp Class A (new)

1. When rebalancing a hedging relationship, an entity shall update its analysis of the sources of hedge ineffectiveness that are expected to affect the hedging relationship during its (remaining) term (see paragraph B6.4.2). The documentation of the hedging relationship shall be updated accordingly.
2. The requirements in paragraphs 6.8.4–6.8.8 may cease to apply at different times. Therefore, in applying paragraph 6.9.1, an entity may be required to amend the formal designation of its hedging relationships at different times, or may be required to amend the formal designation of a hedging relationship more than once. When, and only when, such a change is made to the hedge designation, an entity shall apply paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.12 as applicable. An entity also shall apply paragraph 6.5.8 (for a fair value hedge) or paragraph 6.5.11 (for a cash flow hedge) to account for any changes in the fair value of the hedged item or the hedging instrument.
3. One of the defining characteristics of a derivative is that it has an initial net investment that is smaller than would be required for other types of contracts that would be expected to have a similar response to changes in market factors. An option contract meets that definition because the premium is less than the investment that would be required to obtain the underlying financial instrument to which the option is linked. A currency swap that requires an initial exchange of different currencies of equal fair values meets the definition because it has a zero initial net investment.
4. An entity shall apply Annual Improvements to IFRS Standards 2018–2020 to financial liabilities that are modified or exchanged on or after the beginning of the annual reporting period in which the entity first applies the amendment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Arlington Asset Investment Corp Class A (new) assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) with Logistic Regression^1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AAIC stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+3 month) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

AAIC Arlington Asset Investment Corp Class A (new) Financial Analysis*

Rating	Short-Term	Long-Term Senior
Outlook*	Ba1	Ba1
Income Statement	Baa2	B1
Balance Sheet	B2	Caa2
Leverage Ratios	Baa2	Ba3
Cash Flow	Baa2	Baa2
Rates of Return and Profitability	Baa2	B3

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 80 out of 100 with 699 signals.

References

1. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
2. Breiman L, Friedman J, Stone CJ, Olshen RA. 1984. Classification and Regression Trees. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press
3. N. B ̈auerle and J. Ott. Markov decision processes with average-value-at-risk criteria. Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, 74(3):361–379, 2011
4. Arora S, Li Y, Liang Y, Ma T. 2016. RAND-WALK: a latent variable model approach to word embeddings. Trans. Assoc. Comput. Linguist. 4:385–99
5. M. L. Littman. Friend-or-foe q-learning in general-sum games. In Proceedings of the Eighteenth International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2001), Williams College, Williamstown, MA, USA, June 28 - July 1, 2001, pages 322–328, 2001
6. Wu X, Kumar V, Quinlan JR, Ghosh J, Yang Q, et al. 2008. Top 10 algorithms in data mining. Knowl. Inform. Syst. 14:1–37
7. S. J. Russell and A. Zimdars. Q-decomposition for reinforcement learning agents. In Machine Learning, Proceedings of the Twentieth International Conference (ICML 2003), August 21-24, 2003, Washington, DC, USA, pages 656–663, 2003.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AAIC stock?
A: AAIC stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Financial Sentiment Analysis) and Logistic Regression
Q: Is AAIC stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AAIC Stock.
Q: Is Arlington Asset Investment Corp Class A (new) stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Arlington Asset Investment Corp Class A (new) is Buy and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AAIC stock?
A: The consensus rating for AAIC is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for AAIC stock?
A: The prediction period for AAIC is (n+3 month)

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