AC Investment Research

AAR ASTRAL RESOURCES NL Research Report

Outlook: ASTRAL RESOURCES NL assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 25 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)
Methodology : Transductive Learning (ML)

Abstract

Prediction of stock market movement is extremely difficult due to its high mutable nature. The rapid ups and downs occur in stock market because of impact from foreign commodities like emotional behavior of investors, political, psychological and economical factors. Continuous unsettlement in the stock market is major reason why investors sell out at the wrong time and often fail to gain the benefit. While investing in stock market investors must not forget the risk of reward rule and expose their holdings to greater risks. Although it is not possible predict stock market movement with full accuracy, losses from selling stocks at wrong time and its impacts can be reduce to greater extent using prediction of stock market movement based on analysis of historical data. (Khare, K., Darekar, O., Gupta, P. and Attar, V.Z., 2017, May. Short term stock price prediction using deep learning. In 2017 2nd IEEE international conference on recent trends in electronics, information & communication technology (RTEICT) (pp. 482-486). IEEE.) We evaluate ASTRAL RESOURCES NL prediction models with Transductive Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AAR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. Should I buy stocks now or wait amid such uncertainty?
  2. Market Outlook
  3. What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?

AAR Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider ASTRAL RESOURCES NL Decision Process with Transductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of AAR stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Polynomial Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Transductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+1 year) i = 1 n a i

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AAR stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AAR Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+1 year)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AAR ASTRAL RESOURCES NL
Time series to forecast n: 25 Dec 2022 for (n+1 year)

According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for ASTRAL RESOURCES NL

  1. If an entity originates a loan that bears an off-market interest rate (eg 5 per cent when the market rate for similar loans is 8 per cent), and receives an upfront fee as compensation, the entity recognises the loan at its fair value, ie net of the fee it receives.
  2. For the purposes of the transition provisions in paragraphs 7.2.1, 7.2.3–7.2.28 and 7.3.2, the date of initial application is the date when an entity first applies those requirements of this Standard and must be the beginning of a reporting period after the issue of this Standard. Depending on the entity's chosen approach to applying IFRS 9, the transition can involve one or more than one date of initial application for different requirements.
  3. Such designation may be used whether paragraph 4.3.3 requires the embedded derivatives to be separated from the host contract or prohibits such separation. However, paragraph 4.3.5 would not justify designating the hybrid contract as at fair value through profit or loss in the cases set out in paragraph 4.3.5(a) and (b) because doing so would not reduce complexity or increase reliability.
  4. However, in some cases, the time value of money element may be modified (ie imperfect). That would be the case, for example, if a financial asset's interest rate is periodically reset but the frequency of that reset does not match the tenor of the interest rate (for example, the interest rate resets every month to a one-year rate) or if a financial asset's interest rate is periodically reset to an average of particular short- and long-term interest rates. In such cases, an entity must assess the modification to determine whether the contractual cash flows represent solely payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. In some circumstances, the entity may be able to make that determination by performing a qualitative assessment of the time value of money element whereas, in other circumstances, it may be necessary to perform a quantitative assessment.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

ASTRAL RESOURCES NL assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) with Polynomial Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AAR stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+1 year) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

AAR ASTRAL RESOURCES NL Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementB1Caa2
Balance SheetB1B2
Leverage RatiosBaa2Ba3
Cash FlowBa3Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 878 signals.

References

  1. C. Wu and Y. Lin. Minimizing risk models in Markov decision processes with policies depending on target values. Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications, 231(1):47–67, 1999
  2. S. Bhatnagar. An actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for discounted cost constrained Markov decision processes. Systems & Control Letters, 59(12):760–766, 2010
  3. Chen X. 2007. Large sample sieve estimation of semi-nonparametric models. In Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 6B, ed. JJ Heckman, EE Learner, pp. 5549–632. Amsterdam: Elsevier
  4. Schapire RE, Freund Y. 2012. Boosting: Foundations and Algorithms. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  5. S. Bhatnagar and K. Lakshmanan. An online actor-critic algorithm with function approximation for con- strained Markov decision processes. Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications, 153(3):688–708, 2012.
  6. Mnih A, Kavukcuoglu K. 2013. Learning word embeddings efficiently with noise-contrastive estimation. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 2265–73. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
  7. Mikolov T, Sutskever I, Chen K, Corrado GS, Dean J. 2013b. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems, Vol. 26, ed. Z Ghahramani, M Welling, C Cortes, ND Lawrence, KQ Weinberger, pp. 3111–19. San Diego, CA: Neural Inf. Process. Syst. Found.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AAR stock?
A: AAR stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Transductive Learning (ML) and Polynomial Regression
Q: Is AAR stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AAR Stock.
Q: Is ASTRAL RESOURCES NL stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for ASTRAL RESOURCES NL is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AAR stock?
A: The consensus rating for AAR is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for AAR stock?
A: The prediction period for AAR is (n+1 year)

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