Modelling A.I. in Economics

ADES Advanced Emissions Solutions Inc. Common Stock

Outlook: Advanced Emissions Solutions Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 18 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

Abstract

Prediction of stock market is a long-time attractive topic to researchers from different fields. In particular, numerous studies have been conducted to predict the movement of stock market using machine learning algorithms such as support vector machine (SVM) and reinforcement learning. In this project, we propose a new prediction algorithm that exploits the temporal correlation among global stock markets and various financial products to predict the next-day stock trend.(Obthong, M., Tantisantiwong, N., Jeamwatthanachai, W. and Wills, G., 2020. A survey on machine learning for stock price prediction: algorithms and techniques.) We evaluate Advanced Emissions Solutions Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ADES stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

  1. Market Risk
  2. Trust metric by Neural Network
  3. Probability Distribution

ADES Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Advanced Emissions Solutions Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ADES stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+8 weeks) r s rs

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ADES stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ADES Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+8 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ADES Advanced Emissions Solutions Inc. Common Stock
Time series to forecast n: 18 Dec 2022 for (n+8 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Advanced Emissions Solutions Inc. Common Stock

  1. If an entity prepares interim financial reports in accordance with IAS 34 Interim Financial Reporting the entity need not apply the requirements in this Standard to interim periods prior to the date of initial application if it is impracticable (as defined in IAS 8).
  2. Adjusting the hedge ratio by decreasing the volume of the hedged item does not affect how the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument are measured. The measurement of the changes in the value of the hedged item related to the volume that continues to be designated also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the volume by which the hedged item was decreased is no longer part of the hedging relationship. For example, if an entity originally hedged a volume of 100 tonnes of a commodity at a forward price of CU80 and reduces that volume by 10 tonnes on rebalancing, the hedged item after rebalancing would be 90 tonnes hedged at CU80. The 10 tonnes of the hedged item that are no longer part of the hedging relationship would be accounted for in accordance with the requirements for the discontinuation of hedge accounting (see paragraphs 6.5.6–6.5.7 and B6.5.22–B6.5.28).
  3. For the purposes of the transition provisions in paragraphs 7.2.1, 7.2.3–7.2.28 and 7.3.2, the date of initial application is the date when an entity first applies those requirements of this Standard and must be the beginning of a reporting period after the issue of this Standard. Depending on the entity's chosen approach to applying IFRS 9, the transition can involve one or more than one date of initial application for different requirements.
  4. An entity shall apply the impairment requirements in Section 5.5 retrospectively in accordance with IAS 8 subject to paragraphs 7.2.15 and 7.2.18–7.2.20.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

Advanced Emissions Solutions Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ADES stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+8 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Financial State Forecast for ADES Advanced Emissions Solutions Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba3B2
Operational Risk 8330
Market Risk5133
Technical Analysis5672
Fundamental Analysis5438
Risk Unsystematic8577

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 79 out of 100 with 508 signals.

References

  1. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
  2. Dimakopoulou M, Zhou Z, Athey S, Imbens G. 2018. Balanced linear contextual bandits. arXiv:1812.06227 [cs.LG]
  3. Chow, G. C. (1960), "Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions," Econometrica, 28, 591–605.
  4. Arjovsky M, Bottou L. 2017. Towards principled methods for training generative adversarial networks. arXiv:1701.04862 [stat.ML]
  5. Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.
  6. Kallus N. 2017. Balanced policy evaluation and learning. arXiv:1705.07384 [stat.ML]
  7. Hill JL. 2011. Bayesian nonparametric modeling for causal inference. J. Comput. Graph. Stat. 20:217–40
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ADES stock?
A: ADES stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is ADES stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell ADES Stock.
Q: Is Advanced Emissions Solutions Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Advanced Emissions Solutions Inc. Common Stock is Sell and assigned short-term Ba3 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ADES stock?
A: The consensus rating for ADES is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for ADES stock?
A: The prediction period for ADES is (n+8 weeks)

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