## Abstract

**Outlook:**abrdn Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.

**Signal:**Hold

**Time series to forecast n: 05 Dec 2022**for (n+6 month)

The classical linear multi-factor stock selection model is widely used for long-term stock price trend prediction. However, the stock market is chaotic, complex, and dynamic, for which reasons the linear model assumption may be unreasonable, and it is more meaningful to construct a better-integrated stock selection model based on different feature selection and nonlinear stock price trend prediction methods.(Madeeh, O.D. and Abdullah, H.S., 2021, February. An efficient prediction model based on machine learning techniques for prediction of the stock market. In Journal of Physics: Conference Series (Vol. 1804, No. 1, p. 012008). IOP Publishing.)** We evaluate abrdn Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc. Common Stock prediction models with Inductive Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the AEF stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEF stock.**

## Key Points

- What is a prediction confidence?
- Reaction Function
- Stock Rating

## AEF Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider abrdn Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc. Common Stock Decision Process with Inductive Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of AEF stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Multiple Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Inductive Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+6 month) $\begin{array}{l}\int {r}^{s}\mathrm{rs}\end{array}$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AEF stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## AEF Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+6 month)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**AEF abrdn Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc. Common Stock

**Time series to forecast n: 05 Dec 2022**for (n+6 month)

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEF stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for abrdn Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc. Common Stock

- In some circumstances an entity does not have reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort to measure lifetime expected credit losses on an individual instrument basis. In that case, lifetime expected credit losses shall be recognised on a collective basis that considers comprehensive credit risk information. This comprehensive credit risk information must incorporate not only past due information but also all relevant credit information, including forward-looking macroeconomic information, in order to approximate the result of recognising lifetime expected credit losses when there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition on an individual instrument level.
- If, at the date of initial application, determining whether there has been a significant increase in credit risk since initial recognition would require undue cost or effort, an entity shall recognise a loss allowance at an amount equal to lifetime expected credit losses at each reporting date until that financial instrument is derecognised (unless that financial instrument is low credit risk at a reporting date, in which case paragraph 7.2.19(a) applies).
- The significance of a change in the credit risk since initial recognition depends on the risk of a default occurring as at initial recognition. Thus, a given change, in absolute terms, in the risk of a default occurring will be more significant for a financial instrument with a lower initial risk of a default occurring compared to a financial instrument with a higher initial risk of a default occurring.
- For example, an entity may use this condition to designate financial liabilities as at fair value through profit or loss if it meets the principle in paragraph 4.2.2(b) and the entity has financial assets and financial liabilities that share one or more risks and those risks are managed and evaluated on a fair value basis in accordance with a documented policy of asset and liability management. An example could be an entity that has issued 'structured products' containing multiple embedded derivatives and manages the resulting risks on a fair value basis using a mix of derivative and non-derivative financial instruments

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

abrdn Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc. Common Stock assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the AEF stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+6 month) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEF stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for AEF abrdn Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc. Common Stock Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B1 | Baa2 |

Operational Risk | 85 | 69 |

Market Risk | 37 | 90 |

Technical Analysis | 30 | 77 |

Fundamental Analysis | 69 | 73 |

Risk Unsystematic | 85 | 75 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., MO Stock Price Prediction. AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
- Pennington J, Socher R, Manning CD. 2014. GloVe: global vectors for word representation. In Proceedings of the 2014 Conference on Empirical Methods on Natural Language Processing, pp. 1532–43. New York: Assoc. Comput. Linguist.
- Hornik K, Stinchcombe M, White H. 1989. Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators. Neural Netw. 2:359–66
- Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
- Bessler, D. A. T. Covey (1991), "Cointegration: Some results on U.S. cattle prices," Journal of Futures Markets, 11, 461–474.
- Bennett J, Lanning S. 2007. The Netflix prize. In Proceedings of KDD Cup and Workshop 2007, p. 35. New York: ACM

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AEF stock?A: AEF stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Inductive Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression

Q: Is AEF stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AEF Stock.

Q: Is abrdn Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc. Common Stock stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for abrdn Emerging Markets Equity Income Fund Inc. Common Stock is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of AEF stock?

A: The consensus rating for AEF is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for AEF stock?

A: The prediction period for AEF is (n+6 month)