## Abstract

The prediction of a stock market direction may serve as an early recommendation system for short-term investors and as an early financial distress warning system for long-term shareholders. (Sarode, S., Tolani, H.G., Kak, P. and Lifna, C.S., 2019, February. Stock price prediction using machine learning techniques. In 2019 International Conference on Intelligent Sustainable Systems (ICISS) (pp. 177-181). IEEE.)** We evaluate Aura FAT Projects Acquisition Corp Warrant prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Polynomial Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the AFARW stock is predictable in the short/long term. **

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AFARW stock.**

## Key Points

- Market Signals
- Nash Equilibria
- What is Markov decision process in reinforcement learning?

## AFARW Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Aura FAT Projects Acquisition Corp Warrant Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of AFARW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.^{1,2,3,4}

F(Polynomial Regression)

^{5,6,7}= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{\mathrm{a}1}& {p}_{\mathrm{a}2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & \vdots \\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) $\sum _{i=1}^{n}\left({s}_{i}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AFARW stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

## AFARW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

**Sample Set:**Neural Network

**Stock/Index:**AFARW Aura FAT Projects Acquisition Corp Warrant

**Time series to forecast n: 05 Dec 2022**for (n+4 weeks)

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AFARW stock.**

**X axis: *Likelihood%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

**Y axis: *Potential Impact%** (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

**Z axis (Yellow to Green): *Technical Analysis%**

## Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for Aura FAT Projects Acquisition Corp Warrant

- Credit risk analysis is a multifactor and holistic analysis; whether a specific factor is relevant, and its weight compared to other factors, will depend on the type of product, characteristics of the financial instruments and the borrower as well as the geographical region. An entity shall consider reasonable and supportable information that is available without undue cost or effort and that is relevant for the particular financial instrument being assessed. However, some factors or indicators may not be identifiable on an individual financial instrument level. In such a case, the factors or indicators should be assessed for appropriate portfolios, groups of portfolios or portions of a portfolio of financial instruments to determine whether the requirement in paragraph 5.5.3 for the recognition of lifetime expected credit losses has been met.
- To the extent that a transfer of a financial asset does not qualify for derecognition, the transferee does not recognise the transferred asset as its asset. The transferee derecognises the cash or other consideration paid and recognises a receivable from the transferor. If the transferor has both a right and an obligation to reacquire control of the entire transferred asset for a fixed amount (such as under a repurchase agreement), the transferee may measure its receivable at amortised cost if it meets the criteria in paragraph 4.1.2.
- Paragraphs 6.9.7–6.9.13 provide exceptions to the requirements specified in those paragraphs only. An entity shall apply all other hedge accounting requirements in this Standard, including the qualifying criteria in paragraph 6.4.1, to hedging relationships that were directly affected by interest rate benchmark reform.
- Amounts presented in other comprehensive income shall not be subsequently transferred to profit or loss. However, the entity may transfer the cumulative gain or loss within equity.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

## Conclusions

Aura FAT Projects Acquisition Corp Warrant assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.** We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) with Polynomial Regression ^{1,2,3,4} and conclude that the AFARW stock is predictable in the short/long term.**

**According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AFARW stock.**

### Financial State Forecast for AFARW Aura FAT Projects Acquisition Corp Warrant Options & Futures

Rating | Short-Term | Long-Term Senior |
---|---|---|

Outlook* | B1 | Baa2 |

Operational Risk | 34 | 73 |

Market Risk | 52 | 64 |

Technical Analysis | 39 | 79 |

Fundamental Analysis | 90 | 73 |

Risk Unsystematic | 89 | 90 |

### Prediction Confidence Score

## References

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- Burgess, D. F. (1975), "Duality theory and pitfalls in the specification of technologies," Journal of Econometrics, 3, 105–121.

## Frequently Asked Questions

Q: What is the prediction methodology for AFARW stock?A: AFARW stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Market Direction Analysis) and Polynomial Regression

Q: Is AFARW stock a buy or sell?

A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold AFARW Stock.

Q: Is Aura FAT Projects Acquisition Corp Warrant stock a good investment?

A: The consensus rating for Aura FAT Projects Acquisition Corp Warrant is Hold and assigned short-term B1 & long-term Baa2 forecasted stock rating.

Q: What is the consensus rating of AFARW stock?

A: The consensus rating for AFARW is Hold.

Q: What is the prediction period for AFARW stock?

A: The prediction period for AFARW is (n+4 weeks)