Outlook: AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Sell
Time series to forecast n: 30 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)

Abstract

The search for models to predict the prices of financial markets is still a highly researched topic, despite major related challenges. The prices of financial assets are non-linear, dynamic, and chaotic; thus, they are financial time series that are difficult to predict. Among the latest techniques, machine learning models are some of the most researched, given their capabilities for recognizing complex patterns in various applications.(Shah, V.H., 2007. Machine learning techniques for stock prediction. Foundations of Machine Learning| Spring, 1(1), pp.6-12.) We evaluate AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD prediction models with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AFG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

Key Points

1. How do you pick a stock?
2. What is the best way to predict stock prices?
3. How useful are statistical predictions?

AFG Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) where A is the set of discrete actions of AFG stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4

F(Lasso Regression)5,6,7= $\begin{array}{cccc}{p}_{a1}& {p}_{a2}& \dots & {p}_{1n}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{j1}& {p}_{j2}& \dots & {p}_{jn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{k1}& {p}_{k2}& \dots & {p}_{kn}\\ & ⋮\\ {p}_{n1}& {p}_{n2}& \dots & {p}_{nn}\end{array}$ X R(Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) $\stackrel{\to }{S}=\left({s}_{1},{s}_{2},{s}_{3}\right)$

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AFG stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below:

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AFG Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AFG AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD
Time series to forecast n: 30 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD

1. The definition of a derivative in this Standard includes contracts that are settled gross by delivery of the underlying item (eg a forward contract to purchase a fixed rate debt instrument). An entity may have a contract to buy or sell a non-financial item that can be settled net in cash or another financial instrument or by exchanging financial instruments (eg a contract to buy or sell a commodity at a fixed price at a future date). Such a contract is within the scope of this Standard unless it was entered into and continues to be held for the purpose of delivery of a non-financial item in accordance with the entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements. However, this Standard applies to such contracts for an entity's expected purchase, sale or usage requirements if the entity makes a designation in accordance with paragraph 2.5 (see paragraphs 2.4–2.7).
2. One of the defining characteristics of a derivative is that it has an initial net investment that is smaller than would be required for other types of contracts that would be expected to have a similar response to changes in market factors. An option contract meets that definition because the premium is less than the investment that would be required to obtain the underlying financial instrument to which the option is linked. A currency swap that requires an initial exchange of different currencies of equal fair values meets the definition because it has a zero initial net investment.
3. The purpose of estimating expected credit losses is neither to estimate a worstcase scenario nor to estimate the best-case scenario. Instead, an estimate of expected credit losses shall always reflect the possibility that a credit loss occurs and the possibility that no credit loss occurs even if the most likely outcome is no credit loss.
4. In almost every lending transaction the creditor's instrument is ranked relative to the instruments of the debtor's other creditors. An instrument that is subordinated to other instruments may have contractual cash flows that are payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding if the debtor's non-payment is a breach of contract and the holder has a contractual right to unpaid amounts of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding even in the event of the debtor's bankruptcy. For example, a trade receivable that ranks its creditor as a general creditor would qualify as having payments of principal and interest on the principal amount outstanding. This is the case even if the debtor issued loans that are collateralised, which in the event of bankruptcy would give that loan holder priority over the claims of the general creditor in respect of the collateral but does not affect the contractual right of the general creditor to unpaid principal and other amounts due.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) with Lasso Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AFG stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Sell

AFG AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCBaa2
Balance SheetBa3Baa2
Leverage RatiosCBaa2
Cash FlowCaa2C
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityCaa2Ba2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 88 out of 100 with 534 signals.

References

1. S. J. Russell and P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach. Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 3nd edition, 2010
2. Firth JR. 1957. A synopsis of linguistic theory 1930–1955. In Studies in Linguistic Analysis (Special Volume of the Philological Society), ed. JR Firth, pp. 1–32. Oxford, UK: Blackwell
3. D. Bertsekas. Dynamic programming and optimal control. Athena Scientific, 1995.
4. Çetinkaya, A., Zhang, Y.Z., Hao, Y.M. and Ma, X.Y., Is DOW Stock Expected to Go Up?(Stock Forecast). AC Investment Research Journal, 101(3).
5. Z. Wang, T. Schaul, M. Hessel, H. van Hasselt, M. Lanctot, and N. de Freitas. Dueling network architectures for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML), pages 1995–2003, 2016.
6. S. Bhatnagar, H. Prasad, and L. Prashanth. Stochastic recursive algorithms for optimization, volume 434. Springer, 2013
7. Alexander, J. C. Jr. (1995), "Refining the degree of earnings surprise: A comparison of statistical and analysts' forecasts," Financial Review, 30, 469–506.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AFG stock?
A: AFG stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (Emotional Trigger/Responses Analysis) and Lasso Regression
Q: Is AFG stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Sell AFG Stock.
Q: Is AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for AUSTRALIAN FINANCE GROUP LTD is Sell and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AFG stock?
A: The consensus rating for AFG is Sell.
Q: What is the prediction period for AFG stock?
A: The prediction period for AFG is (n+16 weeks)