AC Investment Research

AFRIW Forafric Global PLC Warrants Research Report

Outlook: Forafric Global PLC Warrants assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 25 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)

Abstract

The success of portfolio construction depends primarily on the future performance of stock markets. Recent developments in machine learning have brought significant opportunities to incorporate prediction theory into portfolio selection. However, many studies show that a single prediction model is insufficient to achieve very accurate predictions and affluent returns. In this paper, a novel portfolio construction approach is developed using a hybrid model based on machine learning for stock prediction.(Shen, S., Jiang, H. and Zhang, T., 2012. Stock market forecasting using machine learning algorithms. Department of Electrical Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, pp.1-5.) We evaluate Forafric Global PLC Warrants prediction models with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AFRIW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. Buy, Sell and Hold Signals
  2. Game Theory
  3. Why do we need predictive models?

AFRIW Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Forafric Global PLC Warrants Decision Process with Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) where A is the set of discrete actions of AFRIW stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Sign Test)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AFRIW stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AFRIW Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AFRIW Forafric Global PLC Warrants
Time series to forecast n: 25 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Forafric Global PLC Warrants

  1. If the underlyings are not the same but are economically related, there can be situations in which the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item move in the same direction, for example, because the price differential between the two related underlyings changes while the underlyings themselves do not move significantly. That is still consistent with an economic relationship between the hedging instrument and the hedged item if the values of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are still expected to typically move in the opposite direction when the underlyings move.
  2. Conversely, if the critical terms of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are not closely aligned, there is an increased level of uncertainty about the extent of offset. Consequently, the hedge effectiveness during the term of the hedging relationship is more difficult to predict. In such a situation it might only be possible for an entity to conclude on the basis of a quantitative assessment that an economic relationship exists between the hedged item and the hedging instrument (see paragraphs B6.4.4–B6.4.6). In some situations a quantitative assessment might also be needed to assess whether the hedge ratio used for designating the hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements (see paragraphs B6.4.9–B6.4.11). An entity can use the same or different methods for those two different purposes.
  3. Adjusting the hedge ratio by decreasing the volume of the hedging instrument does not affect how the changes in the value of the hedged item are measured. The measurement of the changes in the fair value of the hedging instrument related to the volume that continues to be designated also remains unaffected. However, from the date of rebalancing, the volume by which the hedging instrument was decreased is no longer part of the hedging relationship. For example, if an entity originally hedged the price risk of a commodity using a derivative volume of 100 tonnes as the hedging instrument and reduces that volume by 10 tonnes on rebalancing, a nominal amount of 90 tonnes of the hedging instrument volume would remain (see paragraph B6.5.16 for the consequences for the derivative volume (ie the 10 tonnes) that is no longer a part of the hedging relationship).
  4. Conversely, if the critical terms of the hedging instrument and the hedged item are not closely aligned, there is an increased level of uncertainty about the extent of offset. Consequently, the hedge effectiveness during the term of the hedging relationship is more difficult to predict. In such a situation it might only be possible for an entity to conclude on the basis of a quantitative assessment that an economic relationship exists between the hedged item and the hedging instrument (see paragraphs B6.4.4–B6.4.6). In some situations a quantitative assessment might also be needed to assess whether the hedge ratio used for designating the hedging relationship meets the hedge effectiveness requirements (see paragraphs B6.4.9–B6.4.11). An entity can use the same or different methods for those two different purposes.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Forafric Global PLC Warrants assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) with Sign Test1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AFRIW stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

AFRIW Forafric Global PLC Warrants Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementCaa2Caa2
Balance SheetBa2Caa2
Leverage RatiosB1Caa2
Cash FlowCaa2B3
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityBaa2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 85 out of 100 with 489 signals.

References

  1. J. Harb and D. Precup. Investigating recurrence and eligibility traces in deep Q-networks. In Deep Reinforcement Learning Workshop, NIPS 2016, Barcelona, Spain, 2016.
  2. R. Sutton and A. Barto. Introduction to reinforcement learning. MIT Press, 1998
  3. D. Bertsekas and J. Tsitsiklis. Neuro-dynamic programming. Athena Scientific, 1996.
  4. Athey S, Bayati M, Imbens G, Zhaonan Q. 2019. Ensemble methods for causal effects in panel data settings. NBER Work. Pap. 25675
  5. Andrews, D. W. K. W. Ploberger (1994), "Optimal tests when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative," Econometrica, 62, 1383–1414.
  6. Imbens G, Wooldridge J. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. J. Econ. Lit. 47:5–86
  7. Brailsford, T.J. R.W. Faff (1996), "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking Finance, 20, 419–438.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AFRIW stock?
A: AFRIW stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Modular Neural Network (CNN Layer) and Sign Test
Q: Is AFRIW stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AFRIW Stock.
Q: Is Forafric Global PLC Warrants stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Forafric Global PLC Warrants is Buy and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AFRIW stock?
A: The consensus rating for AFRIW is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for AFRIW stock?
A: The prediction period for AFRIW is (n+16 weeks)

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