*AC Investment Research empowers individual investors to make better trading decisions by providing machine learning based objective stock market analysis and forecast.

AGD AUSTRAL GOLD LIMITED

Outlook: AUSTRAL GOLD LIMITED assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Dominant Strategy : Buy
Time series to forecast n: 10 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)
Methodology : Statistical Inference (ML)

Abstract

This paper aims to develop an innovative neural network approach to achieve better stock market predictions. Data were obtained from the live stock market for real-time and off-line analysis and results of visualizations and analytics to demonstrate Internet of Multimedia of Things for stock analysis. To study the influence of market characteristics on stock prices, traditional neural network algorithms may incorrectly predict the stock market, since the initial weight of the random selection problem can be easily prone to incorrect predictions. (Bi, Q., Goodman, K.E., Kaminsky, J. and Lessler, J., 2019. What is machine learning? A primer for the epidemiologist. American journal of epidemiology, 188(12), pp.2222-2239.) We evaluate AUSTRAL GOLD LIMITED prediction models with Statistical Inference (ML) and ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AGD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Key Points

  1. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?
  2. What are the most successful trading algorithms?
  3. What are buy sell or hold recommendations?

AGD Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider AUSTRAL GOLD LIMITED Decision Process with Statistical Inference (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of AGD stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(ElasticNet Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Statistical Inference (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+4 weeks) S = s 1 s 2 s 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of AGD stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

AGD Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+4 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: AGD AUSTRAL GOLD LIMITED
Time series to forecast n: 10 Dec 2022 for (n+4 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

Adjusted IFRS* Prediction Methods for AUSTRAL GOLD LIMITED

  1. If the group of items does not have any offsetting risk positions (for example, a group of foreign currency expenses that affect different line items in the statement of profit or loss and other comprehensive income that are hedged for foreign currency risk) then the reclassified hedging instrument gains or losses shall be apportioned to the line items affected by the hedged items. This apportionment shall be done on a systematic and rational basis and shall not result in the grossing up of the net gains or losses arising from a single hedging instrument.
  2. The assessment of whether an economic relationship exists includes an analysis of the possible behaviour of the hedging relationship during its term to ascertain whether it can be expected to meet the risk management objective. The mere existence of a statistical correlation between two variables does not, by itself, support a valid conclusion that an economic relationship exists.
  3. If an entity originates a loan that bears an off-market interest rate (eg 5 per cent when the market rate for similar loans is 8 per cent), and receives an upfront fee as compensation, the entity recognises the loan at its fair value, ie net of the fee it receives.
  4. When measuring a loss allowance for a lease receivable, the cash flows used for determining the expected credit losses should be consistent with the cash flows used in measuring the lease receivable in accordance with IFRS 16 Leases.

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) are a set of accounting rules for the financial statements of public companies that are intended to make them consistent, transparent, and easily comparable around the world.

Conclusions

AUSTRAL GOLD LIMITED assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating. We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) with ElasticNet Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the AGD stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+4 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Buy

Financial State Forecast for AGD AUSTRAL GOLD LIMITED Options & Futures

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*B1B2
Operational Risk 6945
Market Risk8851
Technical Analysis3961
Fundamental Analysis6575
Risk Unsystematic5142

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 74 out of 100 with 876 signals.

References

  1. Meinshausen N. 2007. Relaxed lasso. Comput. Stat. Data Anal. 52:374–93
  2. V. Mnih, A. P. Badia, M. Mirza, A. Graves, T. P. Lillicrap, T. Harley, D. Silver, and K. Kavukcuoglu. Asynchronous methods for deep reinforcement learning. In Proceedings of the 33nd International Conference on Machine Learning, ICML 2016, New York City, NY, USA, June 19-24, 2016, pages 1928–1937, 2016
  3. Ashley, R. (1983), "On the usefulness of macroeconomic forecasts as inputs to forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, 2, 211–223.
  4. Breusch, T. S. A. R. Pagan (1979), "A simple test for heteroskedasticity and random coefficient variation," Econometrica, 47, 1287–1294.
  5. F. A. Oliehoek, M. T. J. Spaan, and N. A. Vlassis. Optimal and approximate q-value functions for decentralized pomdps. J. Artif. Intell. Res. (JAIR), 32:289–353, 2008
  6. D. Bertsekas. Nonlinear programming. Athena Scientific, 1999.
  7. Bessler, D. A. R. A. Babula, (1987), "Forecasting wheat exports: Do exchange rates matter?" Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 5, 397–406.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for AGD stock?
A: AGD stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Statistical Inference (ML) and ElasticNet Regression
Q: Is AGD stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Buy AGD Stock.
Q: Is AUSTRAL GOLD LIMITED stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for AUSTRAL GOLD LIMITED is Buy and assigned short-term B1 & long-term B2 forecasted stock rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of AGD stock?
A: The consensus rating for AGD is Buy.
Q: What is the prediction period for AGD stock?
A: The prediction period for AGD is (n+4 weeks)

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