AC Investment Research

ALLT Allot Ltd. Ordinary Shares Research Report

Outlook: Allot Ltd. Ordinary Shares assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Dominant Strategy : Hold
Time series to forecast n: 28 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)
Methodology : Ensemble Learning (ML)

Abstract

Stock price forecasting is a popular and important topic in financial and academic studies. Share market is an volatile place for predicting since there are no significant rules to estimate or predict the price of a share in the share market. Many methods like technical analysis, fundamental analysis, time series analysis and statistical analysis etc. are used to predict the price in tie share market but none of these methods are proved as a consistently acceptable prediction tool. In this paper, we implemented a Random Forest approach to predict stock market prices. (Chen, S. and He, H., 2018, October. Stock prediction using convolutional neural network. In IOP Conference series: materials science and engineering (Vol. 435, No. 1, p. 012026). IOP Publishing.) We evaluate Allot Ltd. Ordinary Shares prediction models with Ensemble Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ALLT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

Key Points

  1. What are main components of Markov decision process?
  2. How useful are statistical predictions?
  3. How do predictive algorithms actually work?

ALLT Target Price Prediction Modeling Methodology

We consider Allot Ltd. Ordinary Shares Decision Process with Ensemble Learning (ML) where A is the set of discrete actions of ALLT stock holders, F is the set of discrete states, P : S × F × S → R is the transition probability distribution, R : S × F → R is the reaction function, and γ ∈ [0, 1] is a move factor for expectation.1,2,3,4


F(Multiple Regression)5,6,7= p a 1 p a 2 p 1 n p j 1 p j 2 p j n p k 1 p k 2 p k n p n 1 p n 2 p n n X R(Ensemble Learning (ML)) X S(n):→ (n+16 weeks) R = r 1 r 2 r 3

n:Time series to forecast

p:Price signals of ALLT stock

j:Nash equilibria (Neural Network)

k:Dominated move

a:Best response for target price

 

For further technical information as per how our model work we invite you to visit the article below: 

How do AC Investment Research machine learning (predictive) algorithms actually work?

ALLT Stock Forecast (Buy or Sell) for (n+16 weeks)

Sample Set: Neural Network
Stock/Index: ALLT Allot Ltd. Ordinary Shares
Time series to forecast n: 28 Dec 2022 for (n+16 weeks)

According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

X axis: *Likelihood% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the event will occur.)

Y axis: *Potential Impact% (The higher the percentage value, the more likely the price will deviate.)

Z axis (Grey to Black): *Technical Analysis%

IFRS Reconciliation Adjustments for Allot Ltd. Ordinary Shares

  1. For the purpose of recognising foreign exchange gains and losses under IAS 21, a financial asset measured at fair value through other comprehensive income in accordance with paragraph 4.1.2A is treated as a monetary item. Accordingly, such a financial asset is treated as an asset measured at amortised cost in the foreign currency. Exchange differences on the amortised cost are recognised in profit or loss and other changes in the carrying amount are recognised in accordance with paragraph 5.7.10.
  2. When an entity separates the foreign currency basis spread from a financial instrument and excludes it from the designation of that financial instrument as the hedging instrument (see paragraph 6.2.4(b)), the application guidance in paragraphs B6.5.34–B6.5.38 applies to the foreign currency basis spread in the same manner as it is applied to the forward element of a forward contract.
  3. For purchased or originated credit-impaired financial assets, expected credit losses shall be discounted using the credit-adjusted effective interest rate determined at initial recognition.
  4. The methods used to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly on a financial instrument since initial recognition should consider the characteristics of the financial instrument (or group of financial instruments) and the default patterns in the past for comparable financial instruments. Despite the requirement in paragraph 5.5.9, for financial instruments for which default patterns are not concentrated at a specific point during the expected life of the financial instrument, changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months may be a reasonable approximation of the changes in the lifetime risk of a default occurring. In such cases, an entity may use changes in the risk of a default occurring over the next 12 months to determine whether credit risk has increased significantly since initial recognition, unless circumstances indicate that a lifetime assessment is necessary

*International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adjustment process involves reviewing the company's financial statements and identifying any differences between the company's current accounting practices and the requirements of the IFRS. If there are any such differences, neural network makes adjustments to financial statements to bring them into compliance with the IFRS.

Conclusions

Allot Ltd. Ordinary Shares assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating. We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) with Multiple Regression1,2,3,4 and conclude that the ALLT stock is predictable in the short/long term. According to price forecasts for (n+16 weeks) period, the dominant strategy among neural network is: Hold

ALLT Allot Ltd. Ordinary Shares Financial Analysis*

Rating Short-Term Long-Term Senior
Outlook*Ba1Ba1
Income StatementBaa2Baa2
Balance SheetCBa3
Leverage RatiosB2Baa2
Cash FlowB2Baa2
Rates of Return and ProfitabilityB2Baa2

*Financial analysis is the process of evaluating a company's financial performance and position by neural network. It involves reviewing the company's financial statements, including the balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, as well as other financial reports and documents.
How does neural network examine financial reports and understand financial state of the company?

Prediction Confidence Score

Trust metric by Neural Network: 92 out of 100 with 689 signals.

References

  1. Friedberg R, Tibshirani J, Athey S, Wager S. 2018. Local linear forests. arXiv:1807.11408 [stat.ML]
  2. P. Artzner, F. Delbaen, J. Eber, and D. Heath. Coherent measures of risk. Journal of Mathematical Finance, 9(3):203–228, 1999
  3. Dudik M, Erhan D, Langford J, Li L. 2014. Doubly robust policy evaluation and optimization. Stat. Sci. 29:485–511
  4. M. Babes, E. M. de Cote, and M. L. Littman. Social reward shaping in the prisoner's dilemma. In 7th International Joint Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems (AAMAS 2008), Estoril, Portugal, May 12-16, 2008, Volume 3, pages 1389–1392, 2008.
  5. H. Kushner and G. Yin. Stochastic approximation algorithms and applications. Springer, 1997.
  6. R. Williams. Simple statistical gradient-following algorithms for connectionist reinforcement learning. Ma- chine learning, 8(3-4):229–256, 1992
  7. J. Spall. Multivariate stochastic approximation using a simultaneous perturbation gradient approximation. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control, 37(3):332–341, 1992.
Frequently Asked QuestionsQ: What is the prediction methodology for ALLT stock?
A: ALLT stock prediction methodology: We evaluate the prediction models Ensemble Learning (ML) and Multiple Regression
Q: Is ALLT stock a buy or sell?
A: The dominant strategy among neural network is to Hold ALLT Stock.
Q: Is Allot Ltd. Ordinary Shares stock a good investment?
A: The consensus rating for Allot Ltd. Ordinary Shares is Hold and assigned short-term Ba1 & long-term Ba1 estimated rating.
Q: What is the consensus rating of ALLT stock?
A: The consensus rating for ALLT is Hold.
Q: What is the prediction period for ALLT stock?
A: The prediction period for ALLT is (n+16 weeks)

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